Fed FOMC minutes: bad news = good news?

There was a shift to risk-on during the US session following the FOMC Minutes and better than expected US Services PMI. The prospect of a delayed rate hike, and a boost with the Oil price, helped to slow the US$ and Yen rallies and boost US stocks. The Fed concerns about lifting rates amid Brexit translated into good news across stock markets.

USDX daily: cut a bit short by the prospect of a delayed US rate hike:

USDXdaily

Oil daily: this recovered a bit for the day but note the consolidation pattern and lack of momentum. However, the ADX does look to be on the increase so watch for any triangle breakout that evolves with an increase in the ADX over 20:

OilDaily

S&P500 30 min: the index did an ‘about-face’ after the Services PMI and FOMC Minutes:

S&P30min

TC Signals: the Gold signal is still open for now but the other new signals, three of them Yen related, have stalled or closed off:

Gold 4hr: the LONG TC signal is still open for now and could get a boost if any US$ weakness picks up:

Gold4hr

EUR/JPY 4hr: this gave a 160 pips but looks like it could close off.

EJ4

A/J 4hr: I had warned that the 75 level might be support here and that it has been:

AJ4

U/J 4hr: I had also warned that the 100/101.50 level is a Major S/R zone and to watch for support here. This, too, seems to have evolved but the question now is…for how long? Will there be a reversal from this point or is just a pause before further bearish continuation?

UJ4

USD/CAD 4hr: the 1.30 has proven to be technical resistance again but the boost with Oil helped to lift the CAD$:

Loonie4hr

Other FX:

EUR/USD daily: still no momentum here:

EUdaily

AUD/USD: this looks to be consolidating within a triangle under a major monthly-chart 5 year bear trend line.

AUD/USD 4hr: there is declining momentum here so watch out for any trend line breakout that evolves with increased momentum. There is a major bear trend line above this triangle to watch for if there is any bullish triangle breakout:

AU4

AUD/USD monthlywatch this major 5 year bear trend line as any breakout would be VERY significant:

AUmonthly

GBP/USD: any new monthly close below the 1.30 level would have me looking for a test of the longer-term 1.05 level:

G/U 4hr: watch the 1.30 level as this is long-term S/R as seen on the monthly chart (see below):

GU4

G/U monthly: 1.30 was significant S/R back in 1984 and 1985. Any new monthly close below 1.30 would be rather bearish and support a move down to the next layer of support which really isn’t until the S/R regions of 1.20 and then 1.05:

GUmonthly

NZD/USD 4hr: there is a bit of consolidation shaping up here too as the Kiwi holds above the major 0.70 level. Watch for any triangle breakout that evolves with an increase in the ADX and a move on the +DMI to above the 20 level:

Kiwi4

EUR/AUD weekly: keep an eye on this chart too as the week draws to a close:

EAweekly

AUD/NZD monthly: now, whilst the June candle closed just below the key 1.045 level, price action looks to be trying to bounce back up from here. Another one to watch!

ANmonthlyCloud

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