Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait DXY. – MT is sideways normal. Resilient economic data has been counterbalanced by dovish Fedspeak and the Dollar index closed the week at 97, right in the middle of the recent range between 96 support and 98 resistance. The FOMC meeting takes place at the end of the month and that means no more speeches until the statement is released.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is bear normal. The result of the Conservative leadership ballot on Tuesday will reveal who the next Prime Minister will be and while Brexit issues are a long way still from being resolved we could see a temporary counter trend reaction in the Pound.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. A decisive break below 107 support would likely open the door to lower prices toward 105. Until that occurs the outlook remains sideways. This week the US Stocks Q2 earnings reports season intensifies, so far more firms are beating earnings and revenue estimates than missing them.
- Buy AUD/USD. – MT is bull normal. The Aussie has traded above 0.70 key resistance for the whole week and temporarily broke the neckline of the inverse head and shoulder mentioned last week. The RBA minutes indicated that another rate cut in August is not on the cards, therefore an attempt to move toward 0.72 might gather support in the coming weeks.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The Euro has traded in a range less than 100 pip wide over the last 2 weeks closing on Friday toward the bottom of it just above 1.200 support. At issue in the upcoming ECB meeting is whether further stimulus is offered now or delayed until the next meeting in September after the summer break.
- Buy NZD/USD.– MT is bull normal. The Kiwi has fairly convincingly broken above 0.67 resistance and a move towards 0.69 can be reasonably expected, the RBNZ however is still into an easing cycle which might limit the strength of any upside move.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. The downtrend which started in May is still in place however strength in the US stock market has limited the downward pressure for the pair. Should US stocks come off the recent highs we could see a move lower toward testing 0.97 support.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is bear quiet. The Loonie on Friday surged temporarily above 1.3100 following disappointing Canadian Retail Sales figures. However, the move was faded back down later in the session. We are now in a narrow consolidation within a downtrend with falling volatility. Best is to wait for a breakout in line with the trend.
- Sell EUR/GBP. – MT is sideways quiet. The chart has printed an Evening Star reversal pattern at the 0.9000 level, and whilst the market type is sideways quiet the upcoming UK leadership ballot for the next Prime Minister and the ECB meeting this week might provide some downward momentum to the pair.
- Sell EUR/CHF. – MT is bear normal
- Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet.
- Buy NZD/JPY. – MT is bull normal.
- Wait GBP/JPY. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell EUR/JPY. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell EUR/NZD. – MT is bear fast.
- Sell AUD/NZD. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell EUR/AUD. – MT is bear normal.
- Wait GBP/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy AUD/CAD. – MT is bull normal
- Wait GBP/CAD. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell EUR/CAD. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell EUR/CAD. – MT is bear normal.
- Sell GBP/CHF. – MT is bear quiet.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways normal.
- Buy Gold. – MT is bull normal.
- Sell Oil. – MT is bear normal
- Wait S&P 500. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait DAX. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways normal.
- Wait T-Notes. – MT is sideways normal.
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)