Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Sell DXY Trend – MT is bear normal. The main event this week was the Jackson Hole gathering of global central bankers. The lack of any new guidance by Janet Yellen after the conference has been enough to continue the downtrend in the USD. Concerns for the dollar remain around President Trump’s trade negotiations, the upcoming US Government debt ceiling and North Korea. Watch out this week for Non-farm Payroll Numbers on Friday. Note this week tends to be quiet due to holidays in the US and Europe.
- Sell GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Data has been mixed out of the UK, but overall the pressure remains subdued on the Bank of England to hike rates anytime soon. Rather, concerns linger around Brexit. Careful here of the morning star bullish candle pattern that has formed, which is indicative of some upside despite the downtrend remaining intact for now.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. USDJPY failed to break the key 108.50 level and is in the process of forming a bullish engulfing candlestick pattern. While this may lead to some eventual upside, broad-based USD weakness and geopolitical concerns regarding North Korea are suggestive of a period of consolidation before any such move.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is sideways normal. The RBA is a little concerned with the Aussie at these levels, which combined with risk-off is keeping the price action range bound despite rising metal prices and the weak USD.
- Buy EUR/USD. Breakout – MT is sideways normal. After a period of consolidation the EUR has broken out into a bull MT again on the back of Jackson Hole. Draghi did not say much, but it was enough to convince market participants the the recent more hawkish stance will continue. Meanwhile Yellen’s comments were perceived as dovish. Data has also been positive in the Euro-zone. Look to buy.
- Sell NZD/USD. – MT is bear normal. The RBNZ has talked about intervention and changed their language to concern about the high value of the NZD. Data in NZ has not been good either and there are concerns around growth and inflation with the government cutting forecasts on both. Despite the USD weakness NZDUSD remains a clear sell.
- Sell USD/CHF. Breakout – MT is bear normal. USDCHF continue to sell off in this risk adverse environment and on the back of USD weakness. Look to sell.
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. I like USDCAD shorts despite no clear break into a break MT yet. The BOC maintains it’s tightening stance and could potentially raise rates again this year. The market does not seem overly concerned about NAFTA negotiations. Look to sell below 1.24.
- Buy EUR/GBP. Trend – MT is bull normal. The pair continues to rise and we have broken through the .92 target. Keep buying but watch out for a reversal off this level.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell GBP/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait CHF/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Sell AUD/CAD. Breakout – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Sell GBP/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait EUR/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell NZD/CAD. – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Sell NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
- Wait AUD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
- Wait Gold. – MT is bull normal. We have a bearish hammer off weekly resistance so caution required.
- Wait Oil. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Sell S&P 500. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait DAX. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
- Buy T-Notes Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.