Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 28 May 18: FXRenew

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

• Buy DXY. Trend – MT is bull normal. The USD continues to rise on the back of monetary policy divergence and increasing US bond yields. President Trump has called off his planned meeting with North Korea leader Kim Jong Un (at this point), which has been a risk-off factor in the last week. Trade war concerns still exist as well. Over-all the dollar bull remains in-tact with a rate hike on the cards in June.

• Sell GBP/USD. Trend – MT is bear normal. A Brexit warning from BOE Governer Carney has not helped the Pound and the slide against the dollar continues. Keep selling for a move back to 1.31.

• Wait USD/JPY. – MT is bull volatile. Bond yields have risen and there has been bout of risk aversion due to North Korea, which has seen the pair sell-off around 2% in the last week. Wait and see how the situation plays out before getting involved.

• Wait AUD/USD. –  MT is sideways normal. The technical base discussed in this report has continued to play out and we have moved into a sideways MT. A move back above 0.7600 presents a buy opportunity, though I do expect the pair to remain somewhat pressured given the current bout of risk-off. I prefer to monitor buying opportunities on the crosses given the broad-based USD strength.

• Sell EUR/USD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. The EUR is not handing the developing political risks in Italy well. It looks likely a new Euroskeptic government will form that will challenge the EU’s budget rules over spending on new projects (and a lot more things too I expect). Politics is also in the limelight in Spain with the government under pressure over use of an illegal campaign slush fund. These issues will test the ECB’s timeline for tapering. Keep selling for a move back to 1.1570 and possibly much lower.

• Sell NZD/USD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. The Kiwi remains pressured on the back of USD strength and a dovish RBNZ. Continue to sell for a move back to 0.68.

• Sell USD/CHF. Trend – MT bear normal. Risk off and deep selling of EURCHF off the key 120 figure over EU political concerns have driven USDCHF into a bear market type. I prefer to look for opportunities to buy CHF vs. the crosses.

• Buy USD/CAD. Breakout – MT is bull normal. Recent data has not been great. Oil put in a bearish reversal week on OPEC production increase talk. There is a rates announcement in the coming week from the BOC and rates are likely to remain on hold. Look to buy for an initial move back toward 1.31.

• Wait EUR/GBP.  – MT is bull normal. We are stuck mid-range of the weekly sideways quiet MT. Wait for now.

Crosses

• Sell EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Wait AUD/JPY.  – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Wait NZD/JPY. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Sell GBP/JPY.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Sell EUR/JPY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Wait CAD/JPY.  – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Wait CHF/JPY.  – MT is sideways volatile. Wait.
• Wait GBP/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
• Sell EUR/NZD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Buy AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Sell EUR/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Buy AUD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
• Sell GBP/CAD. Trend –  MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell EUR/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Wait NZD/CAD. – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
• Sell GBP/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
• Sell CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Sell NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Wait AUD/CHF.  – MT is sideways quiet. Wait.

Other Markets

• Buy USDSGD Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Buy USDCNH Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Sell Gold.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Sell Oil. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
• Buy S&P 500.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
• Wait DAX.  – MT is bull volatile. Wait.
• Wait Nikkei. – MT is sideways normal. Wait
• Wait T-Notes.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.

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Economic calendar for the week ahead:

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.