Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me.
- Wait GBP/USD. – MT is sideways normal. A bullish reversal day on Friday, leave us sitting mid range. The BOE meets this week, and this will provide an indication of when we are likely to get the first rate hike. Friday’s good NFP results mean the Fed will likely raise rates this month.
- Wait USD/JPY. – MT is sideways quiet. The pair has transitioned into a sideways quiet MT and way well remain range bound ahead of this months Fed.
- Wait AUD/USD. – MT is bull normal. Despite recent strength, it’s important to note the long-term downtrend is intact. We are sitting at resistance and with iron ore price continuing to fall, the economies exposure to China, and the Fed looking to raise rates, fundamentals are bearish. In addition, a spinning top formed on Friday, which could be a sign of an impending reversal. Shorts present a good risk/reward play from these levels.
- Wait EUR/USD. – MT is bear volatile. The ECB underwhelmed markets, and we saw a large short squeeze on Thursday. There is some speculation that this may be the end to easing, but that is assuming economic conditions don’t get worse in the EURO area, which I expect they will. Long-term the divergence between central bank policy and economic conditions should see the EUR much lower, but short-term these event driven conditions can be a bit tricky to trade.
- Wait NZD/USD. – MT is bull normal. MT analysis suggests that buying is the correct strategy, but with the RBNZ possibly going to cut rates this week we may see a resumption of the downtrend. If the RBNZ does not cut then we could see further upside.
- Wait USD/CHF. – MT is fast bear. We have a major double-top in place, but fundamentals remain bearish CHF. Small shorts might be OK, but perhaps there are some better opportunities on the crosses.
- Wait EUR/CHF. – MT is sideways normal. The range is holding now, so best opportunity will be to buy near the bottom at 1.0750
- Wait USD/CAD. – MT is sideways quiet. Data out of Canada was poor on Friday and oil prices are under pressure. But for now prices remain range bound so wait.
- Wait EUR/GBP. – MT is bull fast. Long-term I remain bearish but for now need to wait for things to settle down.
- Buy AUD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
- Buy NZD/JPY. Trend – MT is bull normal. There was a nice breakout of the sideways quiet MT last week, continue to buy. Should go well if the RBNZ does not cut rates.
- Buy GBP/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways normal. Nice bullish engulfing pattern suggests buy off the lower edge of the range.
- Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is bull fast. Best to wait and possibly buy a dip.
- Sell GBP/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Look short.
- Sell EUR/NZD. Trend– MT is bear normal. There was a bounce on ECB but a bearish piercing pattern indicates a resumption of the downtrend.
- Sell AUD/NZD. Trend – MT is sideways normal. A weekly evening star provides a sell signal.
- Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is bear volatile. Best to wait for now
- Sell GBP/AUD. Trend– MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
- Wait AUD/CAD. – MT is bull normal. But we have a spinning top at resistance so we may see a reversal here.
- Waiting GBP/CAD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Waiting EUR/CAD. – MT is fast bull. Wait for things to settle down.
- Waiting NZD/CAD. – MT is bull normal. Look to buy but be wary of resistance.
- Waiting CAD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait for now.
- Buy CHF/JPY. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. Big bullish engulfing week off support. Look to buy.
- Waiting GBP/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting CAD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Waiting NZD/CHF. – MT is sideways volatile. Wait for now.
- Sell AUD/CHF. Reversal – MT is sideways volatile. We have a weekly bearish engulfing presenting a decent selling opportunity.
Analysis to read:
Economic calendar for the week ahead:
(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)
Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue.
Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.
Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range.
About the Author
Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.
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