Forex Trading Opportunities for the Week Ahead 29 Jan 18: FXRenew

I plan my trading for the week ahead each weekend. Here are the Forex trading opportunities I will bestalking this week.

Note that this is my current view, but if market conditions change my view can change too. Generally I will trade in alignment with what I have noted here, though I will wait for a set-up before I enter. I base my view on technical and fundamental information. This is my beliefs and you are welcome to have opposite ones. Having a plan is more important than the actual direction for me. 

  • Sell DXY. Trend – MT is bear normal. Despite the prospect of a number of rate hikes in 2018, rising bond yields, tax reform and a relatively hawkish Fed, the USD continues to sell off in 2018. The sell-off this week was not helped by the US Treasury Secretary’s comments that a weak USD is good for the US, although any pivot to a weak dollar policy was swiftly denied by President Trump. Data has been average and there is no catalyst as yet that indicates we will see a change in trend.
  • Buy GBP/USDTrend – MT is bull normal. The prospect of a soft Brexit, which, along with rising GILT yields and USD negative sentiment, is driving the bull MT. We have a couple of technical signs that are indicative of a short-term pull-back here, so caution is required.
  • Sell USD/JPY.  Trend – MT is bear normal. USDJPY continues to sell off on the back of a weak USD and some signs (whether true or not) that the BOJ is slightly tightening its monetary policy. Look for the move to continue to 107.50.
  • Buy AUD/USD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. Positive data, global risk-on and general USD weakness has seen the AUD rise continue to rise despite a large fall in Iron Ore prices last week. The strong move up on Friday may have been to take out supply at the previous high. Watch for sell signals off .8100 for an indication of a trend change.
  • Buy EUR/USD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. We have a bearish hammer formed after the ECB came out with a positive monetary policy statement last Thursday. This is indicative of a temporary pull back, though there has been no follow through as yet. Caution needs to be had and some profit taking appropriate for longs.
  • Buy NZD/USD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. The kiwi has been rising on the back of improving commodity prices, global risk on, and USD weakness. This weak poor data hindered the pair as CPI figures came in well below expectations causing a bullish hammer to form off minor resistance at 0.7430. Continued USD weakness has meant there is no major follow though, but we are not out of the woods yet. Caution needs to be had and some profit taking appropriate for longs.
  • Sell USD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. CHF was the strongest currency last week and powered through support at 0.9450. We are now in a weekly bear MT. Continue to sell but keep trailing stops tight.
  • Sell USD/CAD. Trend – MT is bear normal. The bear MT continues. Data remains positive, Oil prices continue to rise and Trump has been more positive on NAFTA. Continue to sell for a move towards 1,21
  • Wait  EUR/GBP.   – MT is bear normal. The low at .8700 was rejected with the formation of a bullish piercing candle. This is indicative that we will move back into a sideways MT and possibly back to 0.89.

Crosses

  • Sell EUR/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to buy. First bear MT on EURCHF since mid 2017.
  • Wait AUD/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait NZD/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Buy GBP/JPY.  Trend – MT is bull normal. Buy but with lots of caution.
  • Wait EUR/JPY. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait CAD/JPY.  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait CHF/JPY.  – MT is sideways volatile. Wait
  • Buy GBP/NZD.  – MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Wait EUR/NZD. Trend  – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait AUD/NZD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Wait EUR/AUD. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Buy GBP/AUD. Trend – MT is is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Buy AUD/CAD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. Look to buy.
  • Buy GBP/CAD. Trend –  MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Sell EUR/CAD. Reversal –  MT is sideways volatile. Look to sell off resistance.
  • Buy NZD/CAD. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Wait GBP/CHF.  – MT is bull volatile. Minor double top in place.
  • Sell CAD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.
  • Sell NZD/CHF. Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell
  • Sell AUD/CHF.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Look to sell.

Other Markets

  • Sell USDSGD Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Sell USDCNH  Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.
  • Buy Gold. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Wait Copper. – MT is sideways normal. Wait.
  • Buy Oil. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy S&P 500. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy DAX. – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Buy Nikkei. Trend – MT is bull normal. Continue to buy.
  • Sell T-Notes.  Trend – MT is bear normal. Continue to sell.

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(MT = Market Type: Click for more information on market types.)

Trend: Market is trending in the direction I have listed and I expect it to continue. 

Reversal: I am looking for a reversal against the current trend.

Breakout: The currency pair is breaking out of a range. 

About the Author

Sam Eder is a currency trader and author of the Definitive Guide to Developing a Winning Forex Trading System and the Advanced Forex Course for Smart Traders (get free access). He is the owner of  www.fxrenew.com a provider of Forex signals from ex-bank and hedge fund traders (get a free trial). If you like Sam’s writing you can subscribe to his newsletter.

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