The anticipated US$ weakness did develop through Thursday and this enabled three new 30 min chart trades but they didn’t go too far or too fast. The US$ has recovered a bit during Friday’s Asian session and today’s US Retail Sales, UoM Consumer Sentiment and Fed speech will be in focus to see how they might impact sentiment.
USDX daily: a bearish candle was printed but today’s candle, thus far, is bullish.
USDX 4hr: the pull back was brief suggesting this may be more of a ‘Bull Flag’ before bullish continuation rather than the start of any pullback. Today’s US data might help confirm which pattern evolves.
Thursday’s three TC signals: there were three essentially US$ LONG signals.
E/U: I note that when price dipped below 1.10 I did not have any SHORT signal so that kept me from jumping in on any SHORT here. The subsequent LONG signal gave 25 pips:
A/U: just 25 pips:
Kiwi: 30 pips:
Today’s radar: I think today will be mostly about the US$ and so those pairs will be in focus.
EUR/USD: this pair has already triggered a new TC signal to SHORT but I am wary with 1.10 below and ahead of the US data. I would not be surprised to see this test 1.10 again though so that would give about 20 pips:
AUD/USD: messy on the 30 min just now but I note the 4hr is showing an attempt on a bullish wedge breakout and a new 4hr chart TC LONG signal trying to form although price is below the 4hr Cloud.
NZD/USD: this is also messy on the 30 min chart just now but I note on the 4hr chart how price looks to be trying to base here off the 14-month support trend line and 0.70 area. This also trying for a new 4hr TC LONG but price is below the 4hr Cloud as well:
USD/JPY: this pair rallied during the Asian session on Friday BUT without triggering any new LONG signal off the 30 min chart. Price is sort of consolidating around the 104 region and so I’ll be watching for any make or break from this level, especially with today’s US data:
EUR/JPY: I would prefer to see this move out of the 115-114 trading range:
EUR/CAD: this is dropping but I did not get a clean-cut SHORT signal:
Gold: still waiting for a move out of this recent range:
S&P500: the 2,135 remains the level to watch here, especially for the weekly close: