FX: a case of Geo-politics: By Mary McNamara

FX has been impacted by recent Geo-political events and the ‘flight to safety’ activity seen to Gold and the Yen but, interestingly, not so much to the US$. The TC system has captured much of this movement though and continues to be a successful trading strategy. There’s no magic here; it is simply a mechanical reactive trend trading system that jumps on trends once they start. Watch out for the AUD RBA Gov Lowe speech and USD CPI data today. FYI: It is a JPY holiday today.

USDX weekly: no decisive breakaway move from this support level just yet but watch with today’s CPI:

Trend line breakout moves:

Gold 4hr: now at 200 pips and note the breakout from the 6-year bear trend line. This is a major S/R level that I have been on a bout for AGES!

USD/CNH: I stressed yesterday to watch this pair and, since then, it has yielded 260 pips!

USD/CNH 4hr: chart from yesterday’s post:

USD/CNH 4hr: chart today:

USD/CNH 15 min: there have been a couple of TC signals but the first and NEW TC signal has given a 4R trade result:

EUR/JPY 4hr: now at 180 pips:

AUD/JPY 4hr: now at 120 pips but watch the 85 level:

NZD/USD 4hr: now at 140 pips

GBP/JPY daily: now at 240 pips but watch the 139 level:

EUR/NZD 4hr: now at 200 pips:

Other Forex:

EUR/USD 4hr: no ‘risk off’ run here yet:

AUD/USD 4hr: nor here:

GBP/USD 4hr: watch the revised trend lines and the 1.30 level:

USD/JPY: watch the bottom trend line on the 4hr chart:

U/J 4hr:

U/J 15 min: there was a decent 15 min TC signal here during the last session for over 2 R:

EUR/AUD 4hr: getting squeezed so watch the trend lines:

Most other FX pairs are still in chart patterns as shown earlier in week.

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