FX: a ‘risk on’ flip coming?

The US$ has continued to weaken and, in a capitulation-style response, the EUR$ has gained ground. So much so that the FX indices are heading towards a ‘risk on‘ alignment. We’re not there yet but if the current trend holds, and if next week’s FOMC disappoints at all, then it mightn’t take too long!

USDX weekly: the ‘Double Top’ looks to be forming up here:

USDXweekly

EURX weekly: whereas a ‘Double Bottom’ looks to be building here:

EURXweekly

TC Signals: there are three open signals:

EUR/AUD 4hr: this has given 290 pips but resistance lies ahead. I wrote a separate article about this trade earlier this morning and this can be found through the following link.

EA4

USD/CAD: this has given 190 pips but is slowing at a long term S/R region (see monthly chart). The weaker US$ and hold with Oil price wouldn’t be helping here. The surprise drop in Crude Oil inventory would have factored in here too:

Loonie4hr LoonieCloudMonthly

Cable: I thought this would be quiet ahead of today’s BoE Interest Rate news but US$ weakness seems to have boosted this pair. A new signal came off my 11 pm candle and price also broke up through a recent bear trend line. A move to 1.525 may be on here BUT watch with tonight’s BoE Rate announcement.

GU4 GUdaily

Other FX: It’s a big data day today with and RBNZ Gov Wheeler speech, AUD Employment data and Interest Rate announcements from the BoE (GBP) and SNB (CHF) as well as US Weekly Unemployment Claims.

E/U 30 min: this has rallied on US$ weakness and gave a great trade during the late Europe and US session. I had warned about this potential when I noted last w/e that the FX Indices were back to being divergent! These periods are frequently defined by better trading opportunities coming from shorter time frame charts during the US session!

EU30min

EUR/JPY: this is looking menacing under the bear trend line. Watch for any triangle breakout:

EJ4 EJdaily

A/U daily: watching this with today’s AUD data:

AUdaily

A/J 4hr: ditto here. This has been dragged down by the U/J and stock weakness.

AJ4

Kiwi weekly: despite the RBNZ rate cut this is holding up well on the basis of less dovish than expected commentary. Either bullish or bearish potential pattern still hangs here:

KiwiWeekly

U/J 4hr: this has fallen below recent support:

UJ4

GBP/JPY 4hr: yet another bounce up off 184. Watch with tonight’s BoE Rate announcement:

GJ4hr

GBP/AUD 4hr: no clean TC signal but a continued bounce up from 2.07 although it’s hitting some resistance now from a fib off the recent swing low move. Watch with tonight’s BoE Rate announcement:

GA4

GAdaily

GBP/NZD 4hr: choppy with the RBNZ news. Watch with tonight’s BoE Rate announcement:

GN4hr

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