FX: cautious moves ahead of FOMC: By Mary McNamara

The US$ is making a cautious move higher ahead of today’s FOMC meeting and the EUR has capitulated by edging lower. This has meant that some decent TC signals triggered of USD-based pairs and that it was the FX Cross pairs turn to chop sideways.

Data: today brings GBP Employment data, US Crude Oil Inventories and FOMC.

USDX daily: a tentative breakout underway but watch to see how FOMC impacts here:

FX Index Alignment: the EUR index is aligned for SHORT EUR but the US$ index remains divergent. I’ll be watching to see how FOMC might impact this arrangement.

Trend line breakouts and TC signals:

EUR/USD: the stronger US$ has sent this pair lower and there is a new trend line breakout. Waiting to take short-term chart trading with the first TC signal offering a low-risk set up that triggered after the Asian session was a safe move here and it gave a trade worth 2.5 R:

EUR/USD 4hr: just 40 pips for now but caution is needed with today’s FOMC.

EUR/USD 15 min: the first valid TC signal after the Asian session breakout gave 75 pips and a 2.5 R trade here:

NZD/USD: the stronger US$ has sent this pair lower too. As with the EUR/USD, waiting to take a short-term trade with the first TC signal offering a low-risk set up triggering after the Asian session was a safe move here and it also gave a trade worth 2.5 R:

NZD/USD 4hr: now below 0.72 but take care with today’s FOMC that is closely followed by the RBNZ rate update:

NZD/USD 15 min: 50 pips for 2.5 R:

EUR/AUD: Rather choppy on the 4hr chart but some EUR weakness sent this a bit lower giving an ok TC signal off the 15 min chart:

EUR/AUD 4hr: no real 4hr move here just yet as price struggles at 1.60:

EUR/AUD 15 min: an ok TC signal here for 2 R:

Oil: this gave a great trend line breakout for 150 pips:

Oil 4hr: 150 pips:

Oil 5 min: the TC signal on the 15 min chart needed too large a Stop but the 5 min chart gave a great TC signal after the Asian session for 120 pips and 8 R: