I’m a little late updating today as Bondi Beach was sparkling this morning and won over the charts. I’m also conscious that the charts could all look very different by tomorrow after the FOMC update but, FWIW, here is how I’m seeing them at the moment. We’ve also got month-end this Friday and this brings another layer of complexity to some instruments too! Also remember that the legitimate metric of Chinese Manufacturing PMI data is released on Saturday after the markets close.
SDX weekly: we’ve had the weekly Flag breakout and pullback to test the trend line and now we’re waiting to see if FOMC might give this the chutzpah it needs for bullish follow-through. Any bearish continuation here though would suggest the previous break was a failed breakout and would bring the lower Flag trend line into focus:
EURX weekly: this is holding above the key 96 level for now:
S&P500 daily: stocks bounced back after Chinese markets seemed to stabilize and Oil recovered a bit:
Gold 4hr: this is still below the $1,000 level but traders need to see where this closes for the month on Friday. Any recovery by then back above $1,145 would be very bullish.
Silver 4hr: it’s a similar mantra here: this is still below the $15 level but traders need to see where this closes for the month on Friday. Any recovery by then back above $15 would be very bullish.
Forex:
TC Signal: GBP/NZD 4hr: I had this triangle set up last week and it was in the notes I published over the w/e. This gave a triangle breakdown and new 4hr TC signal yesterday. The triangle break alone yielded up to 250 pips and the TC signal up to 150:
GBP/NZD weekly: as per my w/e analysis…if this breaks below 2.30 then the 2.10 level near the 61.8% fib could attract:
Other FX:
E/U 4hr: holding up quite well ahead of FOMC. A Fed endorsement of any hawkish sentiment with interest rates could undermine this E/U recovery effort though:
E/J 4hr: ditto:
A/U 4hr: holding up ahead of FOMC and the batch of AUD data still to come this week:
Kiwi 4hr: despite some jawboning this morning from RBNZ Gov Wheeler this is now back above 0.67. Traders needs to see if this can print a daily candle close above this level though before getting too excited here and it pays to remember that FOMC has the potential to undo bullish sentiment:
AUD/NZD monthly: this has almost pulled back to test the broken trend line. The next monthly candle will start next week and will be interesting to watch, at least …..I think it will!
A/J daily: still trading ‘home on the range’…the trading range that is:
Cable 4hr: still looking perky ahead of FOMC. Watch the triangle trend lines for any break or respect:
U/J 4hr: FWIW: I’ve got a 4hr TC signal trying to build here:
USD/CAD monthly: this is pulling back a bit with the recovery in Oil price and some CAD manufacturing data but note it is also respecting the major 1.30 level for the time being. This will be one pair to watch and see just where it closes on Friday as any monthly close above 1.30 would be bullish and support continuation by way of a possible Cup ‘n’ Handle pattern. Monthly respect of 1.30 leaves the options here more wide open…as far as I am concerned that is!
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