FX Flows

From the FXWW Chatroom: After New York closed, UsdJpy short covering took us briefly above 113.20 but claw back as soon as Japanese walked in. We bought some UsdJpy for cross-play and Tokyo names provided the supply. BOJ Governor Kuroda appeared in parliament again – only thing different this morning was that he said theoretically possible to cut interest rates further. Together with fixing demand, UsdJpy rose to challenge first layer of offers above 113.35. The comment from Kuroda, a monetary policy such as negative interest rate works to weaken the currency, gave a push to 113-fifties.

There is a chatter from one rumourmonger that decent buying was spotted under 112.60 with some linking the interest to the “Dark Lord”.

NzdUsd came under pressure and took out the 50-Day MA at 0.6605. Price action indicated there was no panic. Despite a higher UsdJpy, NzdJpy is heavy – thus forcing NzdUsd lower.

Good piece in the Stuff.co.nz on fall of dairy prices following intervention by EU – introduced a raft of measures to support prices but the media said EU announcements had confused things because the futures market had been indicating higher prices. Among the measures are increasing the amount the EU can buy through intervention, and voluntary supply reductions.

NzdJpy should see some initial support at 74.50 now that 75.00 is broken. NzdUsd support at 0.6560 but watch 0.6545, stops lurking. Our traders are still committed to their short positions; technical points NzdUsd lower; yield spreads sees this pair below 0.63. Today’s NZ current account improved but let’s wait for Q4 GDP release tomorrow.

Nzd weakness had the AudNzd testing overnight high 1.1316. Yield spread between the two tells us the cross has topped. We might see profit taking surface. AudUsd on other hand held steady. Heard fresh selling above 0.7500 while bids 0.7430-40.

Canadian dollar mirrored the Aussie. We touched the trendline resistance exactly at 1.3375 and backed away. 200-Day MA sits at 1.3330.

Usd/Asia ended the morning flattish with short squeeze in 1s UsdKrw NDF, taking the pair to 1195.

Our trader Perry noted sellers of 1s UsdKrw early morning after failing to take out 1198.50 yesterday. Fast money accounts sold the 1s and so did the locals in the onshore market. As we approached lunchtime, onshore spot and NDF got a squeeze back up.

In the closing of the China’s National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang held a press conference. Patrick Bennett said Li’s message was as expected; striking a balance between reform and sustaining growth. Reducing overcapacity and he named some as serious sectors namely steel and coal.

USDCNY fix was tough higher at 6.5172. USDCNH, which was already bid before the fix, jumped from 6.5120 up to 6.5200. Market talking about speculators stopping out trades in short USDCNH as well as CNH-crosses (CNHKRW being one of them).

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