FX Flows

From the FXWW Chatroom: Strong demand for UsdJpy continued out of Japan pushed UsdJpy towards 113.80. There was also some buying into fix for Goto-bi Day. Reuters News reported that the Bank of Japan has offered to buy Jpy320bn of super long JGB during today’s market operation. I heard offers gather above 113.95, previous high of Jan 31 and Feb 1. Fresh buying is now said to be near 113.60.

In today’s SOMP, RBA trimmed near-term GDP growth forecast while sees little change in inflation outlook. I am still hearing bids in AudUsd scattered from 0.7620 to 0.7600 from various accounts, stop sell orders from breakout artists near 0.7595. Chinese Jan trade data exceeded expectations. Imports rose 25.2% from 10.8% and imports rose 15.9% from +0.6%. Trade surplus was Yuan354.5bn. AudUsd soared to 0.7650’s – upside resistance 0.7690.

Better Chinese data also propped up AudNzd into the 1.0630’s. NzdUsd struggled to get above 0.7200.

Move up in UsdJpy dragged EurUsd lower. Some bids encountered at 1.0650 – could be linked to the option expiring today for Eur1.1bn and there is Eur1.3bn worth at 1.0600. Keep an eye on ECB speakers today in Hamburg, Mersche at 1050 am local followed by Weidmann.

UsdCad tracked the Aussie – backing off to 1.3120’s. There are some buy orders scattered while offers are closer to 1.32-handle. Canada will publish the Jan labour report – our forecast is in line with market, unemployment rate unchanged at 6.9% and net change -10k. BOC Deputy Governor Schembri will be speak at Western University 1120 am Toronto.

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