FX: key levels to watch pre & post Greek Referendum

FX and stock markets remain choppy with the uncertainty surrounding the Greek situation and this looks likely to persist even after Sunday’s Greek referendum. Both of the YES or NO vote results pose as many problems as they might, at first glance, appear to answer. Thus, I expect there will be large market moves following the Sunday Referendum and I will therefore wait until after this event before posting any further updates. In this post I detail the levels I will be monitoring on a number of FX pairs as this Greek situation continues to unfold.

USDX 4hr: price action pulled back from the recent bear trend line region.


USDX weekly: this chart is still presenting as a potential Bull Flag. I will be watching for any trend line break to the upside or for any break back below 95.50 and or 92.50 to the downside:


EURX 4hr: still chopping sideways within a triangle:


EURX weekly: I will be watching for any trend line breaks, bullish or bearish, and the 96 support level:



E/U: I’m watching for any breakout from the weekly chart Flag pattern, bearish or bullish:

EUweekly EUdaily EU4

E/J: this is shaping up into another 4hr chart triangle pattern and note the bullish inverse H&S still building on the monthly chart. However, what worth any technical patterns have in the face of such a significant fundamental news event might prove hard to mount a case for at the moment! Regardless of this, I’m watching for any 4hr chart trend line breaks: bullish or bearish.

EJmonthly EJweekly EJdaily EJ4

A/U: I’m still watching the trading channel formed by 0.755 and 0.795 and for any potential bearish break to spell out the start of a possible major Bear Flag move:

AUweekly AUdaily AU4

A/J: I’m still keeping an eye on the 96 level above price and support trend line below price:

AJweekly AJdaily AJ4

Cable: I had suggested we might see a test of the 4hr 200 EMA after the previous wedge breakdown and that is what we got. I’m now seeing a descending trading channel forming up under the 50% fib of the recent weekly chart swing low move and so watching these channel trend lines. I’m also watching the 1.60 level above price and the 1.55 level below:

GU4 GUdaily GUweekly

Kiwi: the monthly ‘Double Top’ breakdown seems well underway now and, failing any bounce, one might now be advised to look for a test of the monthly 61.8% fib down near 0.65.

KiwiMonthly KiwiWeekly KiwiDaily Kiwi4

U/J: this seems to be in another 4hr descending triangle under the key 124 level. Thus, I’m watching the triangle trend lines and 124 and 122 levels as well as the top of the 4hr Cloud:

UJweekly UJdaily UJ4 UJ4Cloud

EUR/NZD: there has now been a bullish descending wedge breakout on the monthly chart. Technical theory would suggests that the broken trend line might be tested before any bullish continuation, thus, I will be on the lookout for any pull back here:


Loonie: the 1.30 level seems like a major bullish target level. This is just under the bullish triangle breakout target but looks like it could then form up into a bullish Cupping pattern:



Silver: I’m keeping an eye on the $15 and weekly support trend line below current price and the 4hr chart’s bear trend line that is above current price:

SilverMonthly SilverWeekly Silver4hr

Gold: I’m watching the major support level of $1,145 which is near the 61.8% fib on the monthly chart. A bearish break below $1,145 will bring the $1,000 level into focus. Above current price there is the $1,180 then $1,200 levels to watch as well as the weekly chart’s bear trend line:

GoldMonthly GoldWeekly GoldDaily

GBP/NZD: I’m looking for a test of the broken 2.30 S/R level, and perhaps even the 2.10 level, below current price. The 2.10 level is midway between the 61.8% and 50% fib pullback region of the recent bull run. Failing that, I’m watching for any continuation move higher to test the monthly chart’s major bear trend line:



GNdaily GN4hr

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