The mood has certainly been ‘risk off’ with stocks trading lower and the Yen and Gold higher. A number of FX pairs are trading at key S/R levels but moves off these levels might offer new trade entries. Here is a look at what I’m seeing ahead of NFP.
US$ Index: the US$ didn’t like the weaker than expected US data or the FOMC minutes from the last US trading session. I keep repeating how important it is for traders, and FX traders in particular, to watch and see whether the US$ can break and hold above the 100 S/R level. A failure to do so would lend support to many pairs including the E/U, A/U, NZD/USD and Cable to name just a few. Success, though, would weaken these pairs. A strong NFP jobs and wages print may be just the trigger for tackling this 100 level.
USDX 4hr: lower after FOMC Meeting Minutes.
USDX weekly: note the current lack of commitment from the ADX momentum indicator:
S&P500: trying to find support from the bottom of the daily Cloud:
Gold weekly: geo-political concern is helping to support Gold. Watch for any close and hold above $1,100. Any bullish continuation here might help to support the AUD$ too so watch for any impact there:
FOREX:
EUR/USD weekly: Not too interested here as it is still range bound, IMHO that is:
E/U monthly: I note what this chart and Fib tool are suggesting though:
EUR/JPY: this triangle move and TC signal has given 350 pips of a potential 2,000 pip move BUT the recent S/R level of 126.50 is giving it pause for the moment. I’ll be watching for any make or break of this 126.50 level:
E/J 4hr:
E/J daily:
E/J weekly:
AUD/USD daily: this looks set to break down from a recent triangle/wedge pattern. Watch out for today’s AUD Building Approval and Trade Balance data and tomorrow’s Retail Sales data. US NFP will be important here too as will the movement with Gold.
A/U monthly: keep this chart in mind:
EUR/AUD: this has just triggered a new TC 4hr LONG signal and broken up out of a potential 2,000+ pip triangle. However, there is a strong S/R level less than 300 pips above at 1.55 which could give this move some grief. Also, watch for any impact from today and tomorrow’s AUD data:
E/A 4hr:
E/A daily:
E/A weekly:
E/A monthly:
As an Aussie though I’m loving what this particular monthly chart has to ‘say’ with its Fibonacci tool. Hence, keep a close eye on any test of 1.55:
AUD/JPY: I forgot to update this pair in the Yen post from yesterday. Whilst I was away this pair also gave a triangle breakout move that evolved along with a new TC signal and this move has given 250 pips.
A/J 4hr:
This was my last daily chart of the A/J posted back in late December:
This is the chart today showing the triangle breakout move that has started. Watch for any impact from today’s AUD data and for any ‘Double Bottom’ support that might kick in down near 82:
GBP/USD: the triangle breakout move has stalled as price negotiates the 1.46 ‘Double Bottom’ region. This 1.46 is the level to watch for any make or break move.
G/U daily:
G/U weekly:
G/U monthly: any break and hold below 1.46 might target 1.40 support:
NZD/USD: this is holding above the support of the bottom Flag trend line for now. This trend line is the level to watch in coming sessions:
Kiwi 4hr:
Kiwi daily:
Kiwi Monthly: any break of that support trend line above might trigger a move down to the 0.68 level though as this is monthly trend line and monthly Fib support:
USD/JPY: a weekly candle close below this 3 1/2 year trading channel support trend line would seem rather ominous:
U/J 4hr: the TC signal has given 170 pips:
U/J weekly: watch for any weekly candle close below this long term support. Possible bearish targets are highlighted:
GBP/JPY: The triangle breakout move has given 1,000 pips but is currently paused just above the 173 S/R level. This is the level to watch for any make or break move in coming sessions. Any break and hold below 173 might target the other major S/R level I’ve had on my chart for yonks….the 167 level. This 167 level is also near the weekly 200 EMA and 38.2% fib and so offers multiple levels for confluence:
G/J daily: paused above 173:
G/J weekly: note the confluence of S/R at 167:
G/J monthly: 167 S/R evident here too:
USD/CAD monthly: this is currently above the 1.40 level which is significant. A hold above this congested S/R zone would have to support a completion of the Cup move towards 1.60 and 2002 high region:
GBP/AUD: the 2.07 continues to be defining level for this pair and is the level to watch in coming sessions:
G/A weekly: trading within a Flag:
G/A monthly: will either of these bullish patterns develop? The ‘Inverse H&S’ or the Cup ‘n’ Handle’? The second monthly chart shows a bear trend line that might offer some resistance:
EUR/GBP weekly: price is struggling at the neck line of this potential bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern. This 0.7385 ‘neck line’ is the level to watch in coming sessions:
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