From the FXWW Chatroom: EURUSD has moved higher in the risk-off environment and this should continue for a bit longer, although there should be some pressure above the high from last week. We aren’t confident about the move though, and prefer looking for levels to enter into fresh shorts. Anything close to 1.1000 looks very attractive, with a stop above 1.1060.There should be some support above 1.0920, and only a break below 1.0850 would open up the downside. Support at 1.0935, 1.0905 and 1.0860; resistance at 1.0965, 1.0985 and 1.1000.
USDCHF: After a brief bounce yesterday, risk is getting hit again today, with equities and oil trading lower. USDCHF has moved lower in sympathy with USDJPY and is now trading just below parity, though it is certainly not leading the move. The next support is at 0.9960 and 0.9880, while there is resistance at 1.0020 and 1.0070. Continue to monitor equities and oil.
Cable fell to 1.4230 yesterday after BoE Governor Carney said that “now is not yet the time raise interest rates”. The pair then chewed through the support above 1.4200 and fell all the way to a low of 1.4130. The next support is at 1.4000, followed by the 2009 low at 1.3500.
EURGBP has touched a fresh high of 0.7740 today and the next target is the 2015 high of 0.7875. We prefer buying on dips, with a stop at 0.7640, targeting 0.7875. Support at 0.7650, 0.7525 and 0.7420; resistance at 0.7875, 0.8000 and 0.8210.
AUDUSD sold off to a low of 0.6847 in Asia today as equities and oil turned lower. The pair has held above last week’s low of 0.6827. Keep a stop on longs below here and look to square it up ahead of the resistance at 0.6930/50.
NZDUSD sold off sharply to 0.6405 from 0.6475 on the lower-than expected CPI print earlier today. The pair has stayed heavy with equities selling off and is trading below last week’s low of 0.6835. The next support is at 0.6230/50, which held twice in September. The pivot on the topside is 0.6520.
USDCAD price action continues to be driven by oil and after trading down to a low of 1.4432 yesterday the pair is up around the recent high. The high from Monday at 1.4660 is the first level to watch on the topside. The BoC’s rate decision is due at 4:00pm CET today. The market has priced in a 50% chance of a 25bp cut. Support at 1.4600, 1.4430 and 1.4170; resistance at 1.4660, 1.4810 and 1.5000.
EURNOK: What a difference a day makes. WTI and Brent crude are down 3.2% and 2.5%, respectively, which has dragged EURNOK up towards 9.7000 from a low of 9.5780 yesterday. We expect to see supply around 9.7000 and again ahead of 9.7500. Support at 9.5500, 9.4910 and 9.4000; resistance at 9.7000, 9.7500 and 9.8988.
EURSEK traded to a low of 9.2925 yesterday, but with the return of risk-off sentiment we expect it to move towards Friday’s high of 9.4000. Look to play the 9.3000-9.4000 range. We prefer selling rallies towards 9.4000. Support at 9.2800, 9.200 and 9.1230; resistance at 9.4000, 9.4638 and 9.5000. (UBS)
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