From the FXWW Chatroom: EUR-USD The EUR-USD may continue to test its 55-day MA (1.0837)
in the current environment ahead of 1.0800 and 1.0780. On the CFTC front,
leveraged EUR shorts were pared in the latest week but this may have been
reversed since Friday.
USD-JPY On the CFTC front, net leveraged JPY shorts were stacked
higher in the latest week but note that this data pre-dated the BOJ on Friday.
As such, the expected collapse of JPY longs may ultimately drive the USDJPY
above its 200-day MA (121.50) with 120.00 now expected to be a line in
the sand.
AUD-USD In the near term, the AUD-USD may be trapped in a range
with an initial floor at 0.7000 with the 100-day MA (0.7148) capping the
upside. On the CFTC front, net leveraged aussie shorts were pared slightly in
the latest week. We note however that as a percentage of open interest,
positioning is relatively light, leaving the pair fairly flexible with respect to
headline risks.
GBP-USD Expect the market to continue to fade upticks in the pair
ahead of the BOE MPC and Inflation Report this week. On the CFTC front,
net leveraged GBP shorts were accumulated further in the latest week and a
bearish GBP remains one of our higher conviction calls. Initial upside for the
pair is expected around 1.4435 while the 1.4200 support is seen at risk and
the recent low around 1.4080 remains a potential support multi-session. [OCBC]
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