FX update following ECB and up-beat GBP data

The EUR and GBP were the currencies to show gains overnight. The EUR rallied following the ECB meeting and the lower than expected stimulus package. The GBP rallied after some up-beat GBP Services PMI data but I’m also wondering if support on the GBP/AUD had some impact here. These moves have closed off all of the TC signals leaving the landscape open for next week and the next wave of trends that might evolve after tonight’s NFP. The US$ has retreated from the psychological 100 level with this ECB-inspired EUR$ strength but tonight’s NFP will be a closely watched event to see if this news can re-invigorate the US$.

USDX weekly: the ‘Double Top’ is still an option here following ECB and, if Friday’s NFP and subsequent FOMC disappoint then, this move could gather momentum:


EURX weekly: maybe that ‘Double Bottom’ will form up here?


Gold weekly: this is trying to bounce up off the bottom trend line and will be helped if the US$ continues to weaken:


S&P500: this was always going to be a great short-term trade following the disappointing ECB:


TC Signals:

Cable 4hr: this reversed following up-beat GBP Services PMI data after giving just 90 pips. Note the congestion near 1.52 and I suspect that some would be ‘shorting’ here:


GBP/JPY 4hr: this didn’t ever close below the 184 that I was looking for:


GBP/AUD 4hr: this gave 420 pips before closing off but watch for any reaction at the 2.07 key S/R level, especially with today’s AUD Retail Sales and tonight’s NFP:


The monthly chart shows how this 2.07 level is rather important:


EUR/AUD 4hr: this gave 200 pips before closing off. Watch for any impact from today’s AUD data:


GBP/NZD 4hr: this gave 430 pips before closing off. Note how it bounced off that 2.24 level. I wrote about this pair yesterday and warned about this level.


Other FX: there is AUD Retail Sales, US NFP and CAD Employment and Trade Balance data to monitor tonight:

EUR/USD 4hr: I wrote an article about this pair earlier today and about the various levels worth watching. The first area to watch is the 1.12 region which is a recent and long term 61.8% fib level and also near the 4hr 200 EMA:


EUR/JPY: back at the 134 level….again!



A/U daily: looking a bit menacing under the 0.74 level. Watch for any continued strength if AUD Retail Sales is positive and if NFP disappoints:


AUD/JPY: I’m still looking for any test and hold of 89:

AJ4 AJmonthly

Kiwi daily: hovering below the 0.67 S/R level:


USD/CAD: this continues to hover below the key monthly-chart 61.8% fib level ahead of tonight’s US and CAD data:

Loonie4hr LoonieCloudMonthly

EUR/GBP weekly: this bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ pattern continues to develop:


AUD/NZD monthly: keep an eye on this bullish pattern too:



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