FX Update for 4th July: TC

The US$ has put in a small bounce to start the week; off the 95.50 I noted in my w/e update. This bit of US$ strength has triggered some trend line breakout trades; as shown below. It might be quiet with the 4th July US holiday but watch today with the RBA rate update, GBP Construction PMI and NZD GDT Price Index data.

USDX weekly: the 95.50 is holding for now:

Trend line breakouts: There was a surprising amount of movement given the potential for Long Weekend quiet ahead of the US 4ht July holiday. Some of the trend line breakouts didn’t come with 15 min TC signals but, out of interest, there were 5 min TC signals.

USD/JPY: gave 90 pips form the 4hr chart triangle and not the break of the daily chart triangle trend line here too!

AUD/JPY: just 40 pips but this gave a decent TC 15 min LONG as the two 15 min charts reveal. Watch for any new make or break now at the 87 S/R level, especially with today’s RBA rate update & Retail Sales:

USD/CNH: gave 160 pips and this also this gave a decent TC 15 min LONG as the two 15 min charts reveal:

USD/TRY: gave 200 pips but, whilst this didn’t give a 15 min chart signal, there was a great TC 5 min LONG as shown that gave 7R:

Silver: just 30 pips 40 pips but there was a questionable TC 15 min SHORT here. The 3/7 EMA looks like it was a cross so erred to that side:

Oil: this breakout move from last week has continued up to 360 pips and whilst there wasn’t an obvious 15 min LONG here there was a decent 5 min TC LONG after the US session got going

EUR/USD: only a small break so far but this gave a decent TC SHORT off the 15 min chart:

Other FX:

EUR/JPY: watch for any continuation from this new breakout:

AUD/USD 4hr: watch today with the RBA rate update & AUD Retail Sales:

NZD/USD: still within the channel but gave a bit of a 15 min SHORT TC trade. Watch tonight with GDT Price Index data:

GBP/USD 4hr: watch these trend lines with today’s GBP Construction PMI data:

GBP/JPY 4hr: a new Flag breakout looks to have started BUT watch the 147 level now for any new make or break:

Gold: has broken lower but the 15 min TC SHORT needed too large a STOP:

Other FX pairs: still in patterns as noted in w/e analysis:

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