FX Update: no free lunch! By Mary McNamara

The US$ is back to struggling against resistance from the weekly 200 EMA and I suspect this was brought on by the weak US Building and Housing data and possibly by some uncertainty expressed through the FOMC Minutes. Both FX Indices are pegged at significant resistance levels and I believe the next major market move will be led by whichever of these is the first to make a decisive breakout. The TC trading system continues to catch pips off these erratic moves though due to the focus on the lower time frame charts. It makes for more screen time BUT this then means lower Stops and better Risk/Reward. As the saying goes, ‘There is no such thing as a free lunch’!

Watch today for NZD PPI, AUD Employment data, GBP Retail Sales and USD Weekly Unemployment Claims.

USDX: watch for any decisive breakout from the 92.50 and weekly 200 EMA range:

EURX weekly: this is butting up against the monthly 200 EMA so watch for any make or break here:

Trend line breakout trades:

Gold: this eventually broke to the upside for 100 pips:

Gold 4hr: watch the $1,280 level

Gold 15 min: there were a few TC signals prior to any trend line breakout and also before they the key US Building and FOMC Minutes data. A TC signal after the US data required to large a Stop though:

Gold 5 min: this new bullish post US data move could have been caught with a smaller Stop off the 5 min chart though. Gold and the Stock Indices seem to fare ok on the 5 min time frame but other FX, especially exotics, are quite variable.

Gold 4hr: revised trend lines for next session:

AUD/JPY: this breakout gave a great 15 min chart TC signal for 4 R:

A/J 4hr:

A/J 15 min: the TC signal came with a TL break:

A/J 15 min: and the signal went on for 4R:

GBP/AUD: this gave 180 pips and a good 15 min TC signal for 3R:

G/A 4hr:

G/A 15 min: a large Stop though for this TC signal:

G/A 15 min: but it delivered 3R!

GBP/NZD 4hr: a 90 pip move here:

EUR/AUD 4hr: a 120 pip move here:

Other Forex:

EUR/USD 4hr: this is now looking more like a Flag:

EUR/JPY 4hr: this is shaping up still within a Flag and under 130:

AUD/USD 4hr: looking perky ahead of AUD Employment data but watch for any make or break at this trend line:

GBP/USD 4hr: looking more like a bullish descending wedge now so watch the trend lines. Note the hold at the 61.8% fib….yeah…..they don’t work do they!

USD/JPY 4hr: this chart is messy and I will revise when I see how this current 4hr candle closes:

NZD/USD 4hr: this now looks like a descending wedge breakout but watch for any reaction with today’s NZD PPI:

NZD/USD 15 min: the 15 min chart caught this bullish recovery move yesterday though with a 3R TC LONG signal:

GBP/JPY 4hr: messy here:

GBP/JPY 15 min: there was one ok TC signal here yesterday though for 2R:

USD/TRY: watch for any continued breakout move here:

USD/TRY 4hr:

USD/TRY 15 min:

Stock Indices:

ASX-200: there looks to be another breakout from this 20-week wedge pattern. Will this be the breakout that succeeds?

ASX-200 4hr:

ASX-200 15 min: there was a great 15 min chart TC LONG here yesterday. Watch the new triangle here for any breakout around the key 5,800 S/R level:

STOXX-50: this 15 min TC signal has closed off now but it gave over 3R!

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