From the FXWW Chatroom: Quiet start of what looks to be a central bank-driven week, given the number of central bank policy decisions (FOMC, ECB, BOE, Norges, SNB)… Overall, the weaker than expected wage growth in the US employment data released on Friday has shown little effects in FX, albeit the USD has given back some gains in the commodity currency space this morning. The biggest mover has been NZDUSD, which currently tests the 0.6900 level once again after the recent announcement of current head of the NZ Super Annuation Fund Adrian Orr (regarded to be business-friendly) as the new RBNZ head, effective Q1 of next year. We continue to expect the NZD to have formed a base ahead of 0.6800 now, although looking for the broad USD to dictate the next moves in the next coming sessions. USDJPY has held up well in spite of the weaker US employment data, currently trading above its daily cloud once again. A combination of positive US tax- and infrastructure- related developments and a low vol environment should keep this pair supported as well, at least going into the FOMC
SCB MORNING + CHINA
CURRENT HIGH CONVICTION IDEAS
Bearish USDINR (1 week view)
Bullish USDJPY (1 week view)
Bearish AUDNZD (multi-month view)
VIEW FOR THE DAY
Major currencies had relatively quiet trading in the Monday Sydney session. During the weekend, major data release was China inflation data. November headline CPI inflation came in modestly lower than expected at 1.7%oya (vs. 1.9%oya in October), with lower food prices and higher energy costs. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation remained steady at 2.3%oya. PPI inflation also eased in November to 5.8%oya (vs. 6.9%oya in October). Going into 2018, our baseline forecast looks for CPI inflation to turn up moderately. Meanwhile, PPI inflation (in %oya terms) will likely ease further in December and going into 1Q18, as a higher base effect kicks in. See note. With respect to developments regarding US tax reform, US President Trump said on Twitter that the bill is shaping up “even better than expected” on Sunday. He will have a related speech on Wednesday.
Trades: No new trade recommendations this week.
Major currencies had relatively quiet trading in the Monday Sydney session. During the weekend, major data release was China inflation data. November headline CPI inflation came in modestly lower than expected at 1.7%oya (vs. 1.9%oya in October), with lower food prices and higher energy costs. Meanwhile, core CPI inflation remained steady at 2.3%oya. PPI inflation also eased in November to 5.8%oya (vs. 6.9%oya in October). Going into 2018, our baseline forecast looks for CPI inflation to turn up moderately. Meanwhile, PPI inflation (in %oya terms) will likely ease further in December and going into 1Q18, as a higher base effect kicks in. See note. With respect to developments regarding US tax reform, US President Trump said on Twitter that the bill is shaping up “even better than expected” on Sunday. He will have a related speech on Wednesday.
Trades: No new trade recommendations this week.
Calendar: This week, the US has JOLTS (Monday), NFIB survey, PPI, Federal budget (Tuesday), CPI (Wednesday), retail sales, flash manufacturing PMI, business inventories (Thursday), empire state manufacturing, IP and TIC data (Friday). There will be Alabama special general election on Tuesday. Canada has Teranet/National Bank HP (Wednesday), manufacturing sakes and existing home sales (Friday).
The Euro area has Germany ZEW survey (Tuesday), region-wide employment, IP (Wednesday), flash manufacturing and services PMI (Thursday) and trade (Friday). The UK has CPI, PPI (Tuesday), labour market report (Wednesday) and retail sales (Thursday). In Scandis, Sweden has CPI (Tuesday), prospera inflation expectations (Wednesday) and unemployment (Thursday). Norway has CPI, PPI (Monday) and trade (Friday). Switzerland has sight deposits (Monday).
Japan has corporate goods prices (Tuesday), private machinery orders (Wednesday), flash manufacturing PMI (Thursday) and BoJ Tankan (Friday). Australia prints NAB business confidence (Tuesday) and unemployment (Thursday). New Zealand re;eases business PMI (Friday). China has JP MIFID
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