Gold looks to be trying to form a base at key support offered by the $ 1,145 level which is the region of the 61.8% fib of the last major swing high move of 2008-2011. Gold ‘Bulls’ and ‘Bears’ could conceivably battle this level out until the November candle closes.
Gold monthly: the 61.8% fib / $1,145 level is major support but any monthly candle close below this would be rather bearish. Thus, it will be crucial for Gold Bulls to see the November candle close above this level but there could be a bit of to and fro activity around this key support until then:
Gold weekly: Gold traded within a horizontal channel for much of the last 18 months that was defined by the $1,400 and $1,180 levels. The $1,180 level had been key support during that period but, as so often happens, it has now turned into resistance for the metal:
Gold daily: this chart shows the battle raging between both Bulls and Bears as both the $1,180 and $1,145 levels are being tested. However, I would want to see a monthly close below $1,145 before being convinced of bearish continuation:
Gold 4hr: these two levels could quite easily form up a new trading range for Gold until the end of November:
Gold 30 min: as I have been saying for some weeks now, the 30 min charts during the US session seem to be offering the lowest risk/highest reward trading for Gold. This is likely to remain the case until such time as the 61.8% fib region is either rejected or respected by a monthly candle.
USD daily: the success or otherwise of Gold holding above key $1,145 support will depend, quite significantly, on which way the USD heads from here. It is currently located just under the 88.50 level which is the region of highs not seen since early 2010. A make or break of this resistance will impact on the next directional move for Gold:
Summary:
- the key levels to watch on Gold into the November candle close are $1,180 and $1.145.
- the strength of the USD will impact on the next directional move for Gold.
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