Grexit Fear rises but no flight to US$ safety?

The latest Greece situation sparked a significant sell-off across global stock markets but the US$ has not responded as one might have expected. Fear often triggers a flight to the perceived safety of the US$ but this has not evolved. As well, Silver and Gold have retreated to bunker in near key support levels whilst waiting for further Greek related news. A number of FX pairs opened with huge gaps, some of which have filled in text book fashion, but others are little moved making this broad trading landscape one that appears rather surreal!

 Aussie retail news: The owner of one of Australia’s largest retail stores, Gerry Harvey, was interviewed on radio this morning and was rejoicing in the fact that the last 12 months have been the best for his retail chain since the GFC. And yesterday, Greek stock sell off day, was the best day of that 12 months! Just thought I’d mention this.

USDX 4hr: price did manage to break back above the 95.50 level that had been offering decent resistance but the recent bear trend line proved to be resistance too. So much so, that the index has retreated and is now back below 95.50 again. The surprise here is to see the US$ retreat when global fear and uncertainty seems on the rise:


USDX daily: trend line retreat:


USDX weekly: we’ve still got a potential bullish Bull Flag brewing here though:


EURX 4hr: the ‘come back kid’ of the day for sure. 


EURX daily: the recent trend line gave way but note how the 96 level was effective support as this is major support on the monthly time frame. The ADX (black line) didn’t even take a trip above 20 and so I will adjust this triangle trend line.


EURX monthly: now, if this 96 level is ever to give way one would expect a Grexit to be just enough Euro bad news to trigger the break:


S&P500: stocks have taken a beating but it is worth noting that whilst a recent support trend line has been broken here, a longer-support daily trend line is still intact. As well, whilst the daily Cloud has been broken, the weekly Cloud is still offering support AND this aligns with the daily support trend line. Both of these come in near the 2,000 level and so that will be the level to watch in coming sessions. A weekly break below 2,000 could suggest a much deeper pullback. That, to me however, spells….OPPORTUNITY!

S&P500 daily: the bearish ascending wedge has broken. The longer term daily support trend line is near 2,000:


S&P500 daily Cloud: daily Cloud has been broken which is bearish:


S&P500 weekly Cloud: this support kicks in near 2,000 which happens to also be the daily support trend line. Watch for any weekly reaction here:


Forex: There is GBP Current Account, an RBA Gov Glen Stevens speech, CAD GDP and US Consumer Confidence to come tonight but most attention remains on the Greek debt situation.

TC Signals: I don’t have any new TC signals off the 4hr time frame and, given the Greek-related market tension, I won’t be expecting to see any longer-term momentum based trades. IMHO: Time like these call for either standing to the side or trading by way of shorter term scalping during higher volume sessions.

E/U 4hr: gapped lower at market open on Greece news but filled this gap in text book fashion. Note how price has stalled at the 61.8% fib of the recent swing low move as many would be shorting here:


E/J 4hr: this is another classic text book version of a Gap Fill trade. Note here, too ,how price rejected the 61.8% fib of the recent swing low move:


A/U 4hr: Greek crisis…what Greek crisis…you’d hardly know from this chart! The lack of panic supports a bullish bias to me…..until I’m proven wrong that is and that proof would come by way of a weekly break and hold below 0.755


A/J 4hr: another classic, text book style Gap Fill trade here as well. This is also a classic example of a bearish trend line break, followed by a test of broken TL, before bearish follow through:


Kiwi 4hr: not much reaction just yet to the disappointing ANZ Business Confidence data:


Cable 4hr: not much sign of panic related activity here yet either and note the new Flag forming up:


U/J 4hr: another descending triangle forming here so watch the baseline 122 level:


U/J daily: this time frame chart reveals the recent importance of the 122 level:


GBP/JPY 4hr: no Gap Fill here yet:


GBP/AUD 4hr: choppy and does not interest me at the moment:


GBP/NZD: I’m waiting to see where this closes after the end of month trading today. Above 2.3 would be bullish but below might suggest a pullback:


Loonie daily: still triangle bound:


Silver daily: back below, but still near, $16 support:


Gold daily: hovering near the $1,180 S/R level:


The post Grexit Fear rises but no flight to US$ safety? appeared first on

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *