GS: EUR from trading – So we head into a week billed as ‘pivotal’ , mainly from an FOMC perspective but after the break down of yesterday’s Greek talks also from the perspective of Thursday’s Euro group meeting. Price action so far reflects an uneasy calm and a familiar stubborn resilience to the Euro when logic would suggest it should be trading lower. The initial apathy might reflect fatigue or a reluctance to get involved prior to the Fed meeting and as a result I think Euro positioning is pretty light.
In theory the risk for EUR/USD should be skewed to the downside with Yellen likely to sow the seeds of a September hike and Greece hanging by a thread but I suspect it won’t be that simple.
I am trying to avoid the temptation to chase the market at lower levels ahead of the main event though my bias is for a move lower and ahead of Wednesday fading rallies is preferred. Resistance should be pretty strong towards Fridays 1.1297 high , look for support at 1.1180 and 1.1120.