EUR$ – At these levels, I maintain my bias to be short and to add on rallies. Yesterday’s price action was telling – EUR genuinely traded heavy despite the disappointing US retail sales number. The retracement from 1.1090 to 1.1000 was a sustained, considered pressure – not just a clear out of short term buyers. Just a few weeks ago, people would have been buying into EUR strength – which extended moves by another 100 points. Now however, it seems that the mentality has shifted to sell into EUR rallies.
Ahead of HH this afternoon, I still think the risk is for a more hawkish tilt. With Grexit fears diminished and encouraging Chinese data last night – global risks are dissipating which puts the Fed back on track. I remain short EUR here, will add at 1.1030 with a full stop above 1.1065. I will add on the break of 1.0960 with the belief that it opens scope for a move to 1.0850 rather quickly.