Indices/Commodities Outlook

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 1966 The late rebound in the Chinese stock markets yesterday has led global stocks  higher today, with the US indices assisted by the growing feeling that the Fed will stay on hold at next week’s FOMC Meeting. The result has been a continuation of the volatile conditions and this seems likely to continue to be the case, so a nimble stance is required, probably at least until we see the result of the FOMC next Wednesday. The 4 hour and daily charts point to further gains, where the initial resistances will be at last Thursday’s high at 1972, a break of which could then head back towards stronger resistance at the 28 August high at 1993, although this may be a stretch too far today. Back below the session low of 1930 would then open the way to Friday’s 1908 low and possibly back to 1898 (1 Sept) although this looks highly unlikely to be seen for a while. If wrong, a break lower would then take a look at 1875 (26 Aug low) and to 1850 (25 Aug low) and could eventually see a run back towards the spike low of 1830 (24 Aug). For now, buying dips, with a SL placed below 1925 seems to be the plan.
DJI 16459 Ditto the S+P; Buying dips seems to be the plan, according to the momentum indicators. Points to watch are at: Topside; 16500, 16530, 16600, 11685, a break of which could see an acceleration towards 16900. Downside; 16350, 16270, 16150.
ASX SPI 5142 The SPI enjoyed a solid session, now back at 5140 and in the middle of the recent consolidation range, with further choppy trade looking likely. Further gains, as suggested by the indicators, would target 5160, 5190, 5220 and 5260. Support should arrive at 5100, 5085, 5050.
GOLD 1119 Gold is still holding on to the 1117 support, now back at 1122, leaving the outlook unchanged. The initial support will once again arrive at 1117, but if this gives way a sterner test of 1100 would be on the cards, a break of which would open the way towards 1080. On the topside, offers will arrive at 1130 (200 HMA), 1148 and then at 1155/60. Sidelined.
SILVER 14.79 Silver is also slightly better bid today, at 14.75 after having briefly traded up to 14.90, but leaving no real change in view with further consolidation near current levels looking likely.  As I said previously, Silver is sitting just above the lows seen in August 2009 (13.48) and appears destined to test the long term rising trend support from 2003, at 13.00 and to the July 2009 low at 12.48. Under there, stand back, as we could see a much deeper decline, towards 11.75 and possibly to 10.80. Eventually I suspect that the Sept 2008 low at 8.40 will come into play but this is way over the horizon at present. The topside will again see resistance at 15.00, above which we could see a squeeze to around 15.80 but currently looks unlikely. Selling rallies seems to be the plan although there are better things to look at right now
OIL(WTI) 45.60 WTI has rallied off its lows of 44.15 today to finish back at levels where it finished last week, right on the 45.60 pivot point, leaving the overall outlook unchanged The points to watch from here, on the downside, are at 44.15 (session low), 43.19 (2 Sept spike low) and possibly 41.81/42.00 albeit not today, but below which would see WTI back at 40.00 and lower. The topside will find offers once again at 46.38 (session high), 47.00 and then at 47.70 and at 48.40/80.

 

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