Indices/Commodities Outlook


S&P Futures 1953 After trading a choppy 1946/1973 range, the S+P has ended Monday a little lower, but leaves the overall outlook unchanged. Further choppy conditions appear likely to persist over the next few days, but with the dailies still pointing higher, we may see another squeeze back towards today’s high, where the 1975 area offers decent resistance but beyond which could head on towards  the 9 Sept high of 1991, which in turn lies just ahead of the 28 August high at 1993 and will offer decent resistance ahead of 2000. Below the session low (1946) dips will again find support at 1928/30, below which would allow a deeper fall, towards the previous Friday’s 1908 low and possibly back to 1898 (1 Sept low) although this may be a stretch too far, ahead of the FOMC. If wrong, a break lower would then take a look at 1875 (26 Aug low) and to 1850 (25 Aug low) and could eventually see a run back towards the spike low of 1830 (24 Aug).As before, be nimble, expecting another choppy, but directionless, day ahead.
DJI 16375 As with the S+P, the DJI is a bit lower today after trading between 16320/16527. The points to watch from here are pretty much unchanged, so expect more of the same, although as with the S+P, the daily indicators are still pointing higher: Supports; 16200, 16150, 16100, 16000, 15920. Resistances: 16450, 16525, 16685.
ASX SPI 5075 After an early spike up to a high of 5146, the SPI remains heavy at the end of the US session, currently trading just above the 5061 low, where it is currently propped up by the 200 HMA. A break of this would allow a further decline towards further support at 5045 (minor) and 5026 (double bottom Thur/Fri lows). Below here could head to 5000 and lower, albeit probably not today. Resistances; 5110 (100 HMA), 5145, 5160, 5190, 5230.
GOLD 1109 No change:  Gold finished Monday at 1109, after having traded a tight 1103/1110 rage, with the 1100 support again holding it up while at the same time being unable to approach the 1117 resistance. More of the same would appear to lie ahead, possibly until the FOMC Meeting, so the points to watch remain unchanged. The support at 1100 remains strong, but below which the targets would be at 1093 (76.4% of 1069/1170) and then at 1180 and at the recent spike low at 1069. Good offers should arrive once more at 1117 and then at 1125, 1135 and 1145/50, but which seems unlikely to be seen for a while. As usual, I prefer to be short than long.
SILVER 14.44 Silver is mildly lower today, although after a 14.35/14.63 range, the outlook remains unchanged, with further consolidation near current levels looking likely although I still prefer to trade it from the short side.  A revisit of today’s lows would not surprise, and if we can crack 14.30, this would open the way to 14.00. As I said previously, Silver is sitting just above the lows seen in August 2009 (13.48) and appears destined to test the long term rising trend support from 2003, at 13.00 and to the July 2009 low at 12.48. Under there, stand back, as we could see a much deeper decline, towards 11.75 and possibly to 10.80. Eventually I suspect that the Sept 2008 low at 8.40 will come into play but this is way over the horizon at present. The topside will again see resistance at 15.00, above which we could see a squeeze to around 15.80 but currently looks unlikely. Selling rallies seems to be the plan although there are better things to look at right now.
OIL(WTI) 44.13 WTI has had a sideways session of 43.57/44.94 and more of the same choppy but directionless trade appears likely as we approach the FOMC meeting. As I said before, WTI does appear to be building a bullish pennant, as per the 4 hour charts, in which case we may eventually be in for a decent move over the next few weeks, up towards a target of 58.00. We shall see, but don’t expect any fireworks today. In the meantime the choppy consolidation looks set to continue, leaving the near term outlook unchanged.  The points to watch from here on the downside, below today’s session low, are at 43.19 (2 Sept spike low) and then at 41.75/42.00 albeit probably not today, but below which would see WTI back at 40.00 and lower. The topside will find offers once again on an approach to 45.00 (100 HMA; 44.80, 200 HMA; 45.30) and then at the recent highs, close to 46.00, beyond which would head on towards 47.00, 47.70 and 48.40/80. Expect more of the same today. Be flexible but looking to buy a dip to 43.20 with a tight stop sub 42.80 would seem to be a plan.Aud 1


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