Indices/Commodities Outlook

INDICES/COMMODITIES
S&P Futures 2079 The S+P is pretty much unchanged today after having recovered from a low of 2069 and appears content to use the 100 DMA (2080) as a pivot. The 4 hour charts are now pointing higher after having become oversold and we might be in for a bit of a bounce back towards 2090/2100, above which looks unlikely to be seen again in the short term, but would see further sellers in the 2110/20 area. Although the short term charts look mildly positive the dailies are pointing lower, so selling into rallies in looking for a sustained break of 2070 to open the way for a slide towards 2057 and then to 2045 (200 DMA) and to 2035 (61.8% of 1812/2133) seems to be the plan.
DJI 17770 After falling below 17800, the DJI has recovered from 17690, to currently sit at 17770. As with the S+P, while the short term charts are recovering from having become oversold the dailies are pointing lower and so selling into near term strength seems to be the plan. If we do see a short squeeze, the points to watch are at 17800 and 17850, and we should not now go above the Head/Shoulders neckline at 17925. The downside will again see bids at 17690/700 but a break of which would head towards 17600, where the  potential head and shoulder target lies, although it may be too early to think of such a decline today.
ASX SPI 5463 The SPI extended its recent losses today, and after rising in early Australian trade yesterday it then reversed, closing weaker for a sixth straight session, currently sitting at 5460 after earlier trading down to 5424, where it gained some support from the 100 Week MA at 5435. The index is currently hanging on above  the 5445 Fibo support (61.8% of 5103/6008) but the dailies suggest that we are going to see it  back at the 100 WMA/session lows, beyond which will head towards 5400 and eventually to 5315 (76.4%). Bounces look to be limited to around 5500 (100 HMA) although we could see a run back towards the session high at 5525, which if seen, looks to be a good sell opportunity. Further out, the 200 HMA is currently at 5615 but coming down rapidly. Keep trailing stops on shorts above this (200 HMA).
GOLD 1174 Gold is still consolidating at the lower end of its trend (1172/82 range today), after spiking down to 1162 following Friday’s US Jobs data. Looking ahead, I suspect the slow grind lower is going to continue, with the odd relief rally thrown in along the way. The immediate target is Friday’s 1162 low, below which would head towards 1150, 1142 (17 March low) and eventually to 1131 (7 Nov low). The topside will again see sellers at 1180/1190, above which it will, once again, find it hard to break back above 1200/05. If wrong,  we  could see another run towards 1210 and possibly towards 1225. Doubtful. Selling rallies still seems to be the theme.
SILVER 15.96 Silver is unchanged today after a narrow 15.95/16.18 range. While the 4 hour charts are recovering, after having become oversold, the dailies are pointing lower, so we could be in for a test of 15.80 (30 Apr low) below which would head to the 24 April low at 15.60 and eventually to the 11 March low at 15.29 . The topside will find sellers again at 16.15 (100 HMA)  ahead of 16.35 (23.6% of 17.74/15.92), 16.45 (200 HMA) and the 100 DMA (16.60). The outlook remains unchanged, and selling rallies would seem to be the plan, with a SL placed tight above 17.00.
OIL(WTI) 60.58 WTI was the big mover today as the high level of volatility continues, rallying 3%,  to keep the broad 56.50/61.50 consolidation of the last 6 weeks intact. The charts are mixed, but the 4 hour charts point higher, suggesting a run towards 61.55 (2 June high) and possibly on towards 62.55 (6 May high). The downside will now find minor support at the 60.00 pivot, below which would head back towards 59.00 and even to the 58.21 session low. Neutral. Sidelined.

 

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