| INDICES/COMMODITIES | ||
| S&P Futures | 2111 | The S+P has finished the day’s session on a firm note, but not before a choppy session that saw a downside clean-out to 2087. It has been unable to recover to reach yesterday’s all time high though, leaving the larger technical picture intact as the market awaits the FOMC meeting later in the coming session. On the downside, back below 2100, 2085/90 will again see good bids ahead of rising trend support, and the 100 DMA, both currently at 2060. The topside needs to regain 2119, yesterday’s all time high, above which an acceleration towards rising trend resistance at around 2140 should not be ruled out. A weak GDP/dovish Fed would help it on its way. |
| DJI | 18049 | The DJI took a nasty spike lower to reach the support at 17850 (low 17836) before a strong bounce, closing just below the high of 18059. Now back above 18000, the DJI will again find resistance at around 18075/90 and then at 18120, but beyond which, the all time high of 18265 would come into view. Overall, more choppy trade looks likely, most likely within the recent 18120/17770 (100 DMA) range, ahead of FOMC Meeting, with a dovish outcome suggesting that it will be the topside that could come under pressure. |
| ASX SPI | 5937 | The SPI has traded a 5905/83 range today, currently sitting towards the lows as markets increasingly perceive that the RBA may keep rates on hold at next week’s meeting. More 5800/5900 range trade appears likely although direction today will largely be dictated by the outcome of the FOMC meeting. Above 6000, strong resistance is again to be seen at 6010, this being 76.4% of the entire fall from 6880 (Dec 2007) to 3102 (Mar 2009), above which would see the SPI head back towards 6102, from where the market stalled before gapping lower at the beginning of 2008. Back below 5900 would see bids 5885, 5850 and at the recent lows at around 5800 although this looks unlikely in the near term. |
| GOLD | 1212 | Gold has headed higher today, after having successfully overcome the 1200/07 resistance, to sit right on the 100 DMA at 1211. A dovish Fed, later today, would see the dollar weaken further, allowing Gold to head on towards the recent 1224 high and then to the 200 DMA at 1230.Back to the downside, support would arrive at 1200/05 below which we could get another dip to 1180/85 and then to Friday’s low at 1175 (1174: 61.8% of 1142/1224), but which seems unlikely at this stage. |
| SILVER | 16.59 | Silver has squeezed higher to reach the resistance at 16.60 today, where short term bearish divergence suggests that this may be toppish for the coming session, with the chance of a dip back towards the 16.30 area. The dailies though, do point higher, and should the Fed prove as dovish as everyone seems to expect we could see another run towards the major descending trend resistance at 16.94. Above this could see an acceleration towards the 200 DMA at 17.25, and stops on shorts should be placed above here. The downside looks supported for now at the session low at 16.30, below which could retest 16.00 and 15.70, although this looks unlikely right now. Wait for the Fed, but a stronger test of 17.00 now looks to be the most likely outcome. |
| OIL(WTI) | 56.88 | WTI has had a choppy but generally sideways session after having seen a 56.05/57.80 range, before ending up largely unchanged on the day. Below today’s low would open up the chance of a move towards 55.00 and then to the important 54.15 pivot level. Below this would see WTI head back towards the larger degree of rising trend support currently at 52.85 and to the Fibo support at 52.20 (38.2% of 42.02/58.60). A return to the topside looks to be delayed as the dailies still appear toppish; however the weeklies remain positive so I still think buying dips towards 55.00/54.15 is the plan, with a stop placed at around 53.70 but looking for another bounce, eventually towards 58.00 and the 2015 high, set this week at 58.60, above which would test the 18 Dec high at 59.00, ahead of a stronger run towards 60.00 |
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