Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts


S&P Futures 2038 The S+P has headed higher into the major resistance area, but is yet to take out the 2050 area that we previously mentioned, but above which we could see a further run up towards 2060 (76.4% of 2088/1970), which is strong resistance ahead of  the consolidation area at 2065/70 and then the all time high at 2088.50. Although I have been looking to sell the rally, I am now not sure that this is the right strategy given that the indicators generally seem to point to further gains. If we do turn out to be correct though and the SPI does turn lower, then the support levels are now seen at 2030 (minor) ahead of more important levels at 2015 and at the 100 DMA at 2005, but which currently looks out of reach. Given the choppy nature of the market, it looks as though a neutral stance is probably advisable.
DJI 17545 The DJI roared north again, proving me wrong on the likely toppish area around 17450 , and headed strongly higher to reach 17590 which is where it is closing the session. While the price action is so choppy I would stand aside, although with the daily indicators having once again turned sharply higher after the rally of the last 2 sessions and further gains towards 17800/870 now look possible.
ASX SPI 5734 The SPI is having a stellar run, assisted by yesterday’s RBA outcome, and now looks headed towards 5800 and possibly higher. There is little resistance ahead, and now at 7 year highs, we need to go back to the monthly charts and the Fibo resistance of the move from 6880 (Dec 2007 high) to 3102 (March 2009 low) at 5975 to find the next decent resistance level. For the time being, some consolidation above the previous high of 5669 cold be in order. Keep stops tight below 5650 as this would signal a false upside break.
GOLD 1262 Gold is currently holding the wide 1310/1255 range that we previously mentioned although it gave the base a decent workout today, tradign to 1255.45. While the 200 DMA (1253) holds, continue to use the range as a guide, but as before, keep stops tight below 1250, as a downside break could see a run back towards 1235. If the dollar continues to weaken, then Gold could make a decent recovery, so worth watching.
SILVER 17.33 Silver held on to the previous session’s gains, actually closing a little higher and seems to be contained for now by the 100/200 DMA’s (16.85/18.30). Within that range it looks set to remain rather choppy and I would look elsewhere for inspiration.
OIL(WTI) 52.63 Another 8% rise today took WTI up to 54.21. We never saw the dip to allow us to buy it and it could be the same today, with the indicators pointing higher still. Above the session highs would look to test the 55.08 (2 Jan high), while dips now seem contained by 51.40, below which would again look at 50.00, but seems unlikely for a while.


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