Indices/Commodities Outlook by FX Charts


S&P Futures 2078 The S+P made a bit of a recovery today after holding on above the the 2060 Fibo support at 2061 (38.2% of 1973/2116), in trading to a low of 2065 before squeezing up to a high of 2082. This will remain resistance today, although the short term indicators do point to the chance of a return to 2090 (100 HMA) but I would be a bit surprised to see 2100 (200 HMA) again, at least in the short term. Given that the dailies still point lower, the Fibo support at 2060 could come into play  at some stage this week, a break of which would then open up 2053 (11 Feb low) and 2045 (50% pivot of 1973/2116). beneath which we could then be in for a steeper fall towards the 100 DMA at 2037 and the next degree of Fibo support at 2030 (23.6% of 1812/2116). These levels look unlikely for a while, if at all and given the lack of data today, it could be a session of consolidation close to current levels.
DJI 17980 The DJI surprised a bit in recovering Friday’s losses so easily today, in reaching 18017, before closing a little lower. The daily indicators still point lower, so I would not be too confident on the topside although a sustained break of 18000 would see us back in familiar territory and the likelihood of more 18000/200 range trading. If the negative daily momentum and the bearish divergence do kick in, then we could see a return to the 17900/800 area, below which the next meaningful support is at 17765 (38.2% of 16960/18268), a break of which would open up the weekly Tenkan, some way off at 17610. For today, as with the S+P, it could be a session of consolidation close to current levels given the lack of data to drive it anywhere.
ASX SPI 5825 The SPI is unchanged today after a range of 5801/50. Today could be busy, with a bit of data coming up (NAB Business Confidence/China CPI, PPI) but the charts are mixed and it maybe that we are in for a similar range again. Weak data figures could put the pressure on the downside, and below 5800 could see a decline towards 5775. The topside will see once again see sellers lining up at 5850, above which  5870 (100 HMA) and 5885 (200 HMA) will provide the levels to watch ahead of 5900 which, if seen, will again provide stiff headwinds. I don’t think we are likely to see it up here again for a while, but if wrong, the SPI could then head on back towards the 5981 trend high. As with yesterday, selling rallies in the 5850/75 area seems to be the plan.
GOLD 1166 Gold consolidated in a 1165/75 range today licking its wounds from Friday’s sharp fall. More of the same looks possible while the short term charts unwind their oversold condition and 1175 will continue to provide resistance ahead of 1180 and 1190. On the downside, 1160 support remains intact, a break of which would see a move towards the 1 Dec low at around 1142 and then on to the 7 Nov low at 1131. Eventually I suspect we are in for  move towards 1100 and lower towards important levels at 1085 (Mar 2010 low) and to 1044 (Jan 2010 low)
SILVER 15.88 Silver consolidated in a 15.73/15.98 range today, and in the short term more of the same looks possible. The dailies still point lower though and thus further losses look possible, with a break of 15.70 opening up the chance of a run towards 15.00/10 and eventually the spike low seen on 1 Dec at 14.41. Below that, the 200 Month MA sits at 13.80 and eventually looks to be in focus, but which would be very strong support, if seen. On the topside, 16.00 will again act as resistance ahead of 16.20 and 16.40 (23.6% of 18.47/15.77) although I would be surprised to see it reach these levels in the near term.
OIL(WTI) 49.70 WTI had a quieter 49.23/50.76 session today. There is no change in view and, as before, I would continue to remain sidelined while this directionless, choppy action continues, although if the dollar continues to rise, then WTI will find it increasingly difficult to maintain its current levels. While below 50.00, I think the points to watch over the next few days, below today’s low, will be in the 48.85/70 area and possibly 47.75 (last Thursday low), below which could head to the 5 Feb low at 47.35, 46.64 (2 Feb low), 44.29 (1 Feb low) and 43.56 (trend low). The topside will see sellers lining up again ahead of 51.00. More will arrive in the 52.00/50 area, above which would head back towards 52.70/53.00. We are unlikely to head above here today but beyond that, the points to watch are at last Wednesday’s 53.38 high and then at last Monday’s 53.95 high, above which is the double top that has formed at 54.15 and then 55.08 (2 Jan high. There are better things to trade right now.

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