More delays on the horizon for Trumponomics: Republican Senator Heller on Saturday outright rejected the Senate healthcare bill – making it five Republican Senators who have come out against the bill. Expect a fairly quiet week ahead with little in the way of event risk to push markets around. Watch out for comments out of the “Forum on central banking” (June 26/28 in Portugal). Fed Chair Yellen will also be speaking on Tuesday in London. Crude remains in a tough spot as oil inventories don’t seem to be drawing down, even with cuts from OPEC. US shale activity is rising and making OPEC efforts worthless at the moment.
USD: we’ll see the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge, a rush to strike a health care agreement, and some Fed speak early in the week.
EUR: Ger IFO, EU CPI & Consumer Readings will be under scrutiny this week, alongside any comments from the Central Bankers’ Conference.
GBP: Markets remain weary on GBP. Hawkish BOE rhetoric vs. Brexit consequences make for unclear sentiment at the moment despite a bearish overall backdrop. The Queen’s speech has created a deadline (10 days) after which there will be a vote of confidence for the current government. If May loses this vote of confidence, Corbyn would have approximately 2 weeks to form a government (unlikely). The other scenario is yet another round of elections, right when political stability is needed most (Brexit Talks).
CAD: BoC speakers and a pair of quarterly updates to the BoC’s surveys of business and lender attitudes will be the main focus.
NZD: May trade report, BNZ business confidence survey & May building consents this week will be in play after the less dovish RBNZ.
Slim pickings this week. I remain bearish on Crude Oil and bullish on Nzd vs. Gbp, Jpy, Aud.