- INTRODUCTION:
Welcome.
This week’s DRIVE THRU takes on a new format. I am not changing for changing sake, I am responding to comments. The main purpose of this blog is to formally communicate with my PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers, but it does have a dual purpose. The second purpose is to inform and hopefully attract serious FX traders to become new PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers. It is always a balance and for about 4 years now, I keep tweaking the content. I hope that you like this revision. Given my history in this regard it will NOT be the last.
Moving on…
Last week had it all; boredom, excitement, annoyance, frustration, surprise plus profits and losses and several shots of Jack Daniels… that was just Tuesday. I think I read somewhere that it was the strongest / biggest single day rally in the USD for years.
It certainly shook the markets for those playing the EUR/USD (Head and Shoulders) / DXY (Inverted Head and Shoulders). Money flows at the moment are driving these huge moves. The NIKKEI had a 20% move higher in a couple of months. Fund managers are looking for value as we head into the year end, monies are moving to Europe away from Japan etc.… there is a lot going on and currencies are being used in huge volumes to facilitate a lot of these moves.
Overnight last Thursday into Friday morning the PREMIUM SERVICE was blasted with over 750 pips of profit when my core short positions across the AUD and NZD drilled home pips across several trades.
For me last week was a two-day trading week… All that wasted time for the other days sitting in front of screens!!
It has been quite some time since I have written “RISK OFF” in my blog but we are sort of there as we are bouncing around in the US equity markets. It is a battle between the “BUY THE DIP” mentality and market bears. Is the most hated rally ever finally being sold? Not sure but a pullback of sorts, and its minimal in the grand scheme of things is happening.
Enough of that…
Over the past month or so I have been sampling my competition to the PREMIUM SERVICE.
There are so many chart analysts out there, but that is all they do. They look backwards and tell what patterns were formed and why, but there is very little out there who look forward and trade, in fact I doubt very many of them have skin in the market.
I have looked across the spectrum; costly to cheap and well-known to unknown.
I followed big names who have tens of thousands of followers on twitter, as well as specific trade set up providers and analysts from brokers. In total about 10 names/ businesses, here is a sample of what I came across. It’s not totally inclusive as some were just not worth the print!
TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (UK BASED): Is a regular guest on BNN, CNBC and BLOOMBERG, huge on Twitter. In my opinion, he is a gambler. He puts trades up a minute or two before high beta news events. It’s a 50-50 guess. You hear about the good ones on Twitter and the failures disappear. The service covers all markets, I am just Forex, so a lot of what I received was great for correlations but nothing revolutionary. I made money but the cost was double what I charge. Lots of supporting information, not sure where its cut and pasted from. Response time to questions poor.
It was a high cost, I made money but the gambling trades are stupid in my opinion.
TV ANAYLST WITH OWN FX SUPPORT BUSINESS (US BASED): Another, is so fast and impossible to follow on a webinar and the amount of assumptions made are incredible. This service provider is a regular on CNBC. All the trades lost money. Analysis is good but the implementation of trades a joke. It was all over the map for me, no discipline, no structure. The chat room was frankly dangerous, no management, inexperienced traders being exposed to all sorts of crap. Is it any wonder FX gets a bad name? I would close that down right now.
There are so many cost options, so much to take in, maybe something I did NOT buy worked but I doubt it. I am confused about the whole package options and I blame this service for my migraine during the week. Response time to questions excellent.
Cannot possibly trade LIVE trades. Very well-known must live off huge fee incomes from webinars, on-line books, algorithm sales (they don’t work either) and TV appearance fees.
BROKER ANALYST (UK BASED): This person from a large Broker, also on Business TV a fair bit, I respect as a chart analyst, but the LIVE trading is a fecking joke. He simply never trades. It’s all theory. No skin in the game.
TRADES SERVICE PROVIDER (HONG KONG BASED): Four times more expensive than the PREMIUM SERVICE no supporting information for trades, poor response times and trades were all 10 or 15 pip scalps that would NOT cover the cost of the subscription unless you were trading 4/5 standard lots a time. Not my target audience and too high RISK for most people. I just about broke even. Not my cup of tea. Now they are SPAMMING me… Jesus, Mary and Joseph!!
SUMMARY:
I have faults, just ask my wife! Trading in the FX market I always have real skin in the market. I feel the trades. I trade without emotion (most times) because I manage RISK. I do not have hundreds of subscribers, no way near. I have a solid group of serious FX traders from around the globe and two syndicates through spokespeople that adds about 20 additional traders into the mix. I keep it simple and I try my best to provide a personal and prompt service. I, the PREMIUM SERVICE am looking for serious traders who want to trade, not have to trade, I hope that makes sense.
To do what I do, I can’t have more than 50 subscribers. There are still a few spaces left.
I may chop ‘n change trades around to fit the market conditions, which can be difficult to follow with everyone being in different time zones, but that is trading. I trade to make $$$ not to lose $$$.
I was up at 3.30AM on a couple of mornings last week playing with trades. That is the reality of trading in the FX market, its open from Sunday at 5PM EST and closes the following Friday at 5PM EST. I am NOT interested in “that trade was closed whilst I was asleep!” If you are a serious trader you have little sleep between Sunday and Friday each week.
Back on track…
At the end of the day from my research, did I find anything I want to add to the PREMIUM SERVICE?
There are a couple of things I will introduce moving forward but overall, I feel good about the research I provide it is mostly brief and to the point. Those services that provide lots of commentary, I strongly suspect DO NOT TRADE. I struggle for hours as it is now and I consider myself damn good at time management.
Finally,
There will be no blog next weekend, we have friends flying in from the UK. The opportunities to trade will be slim. Plus, zero time for completing research and finding the 10 hours or so required to complete the blog from start to finish will just not be there. So, it is a see you in two weeks after this week’s review.
- THE FX MARKET PLACE:
LOOKING AHEAD THIS COMING WEEK:
THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA RELEASES:
USD MAJORS – SUPPORT & RESISTANCE LEVELS with BIAS:
USD – TRADING CHARTS:
More often than not I will use DAILY CHARTS for my analysis.
EUR/USD:
Overall recent data from the EUROZONE has been good. We have seen a pullback from the recent 1.1860 highs. RSi (Relative Strength Indicator) is moving higher and given the better data, the bulls are trying to regain control once again. I think that we need to see a break higher above 1.1880 (BLACK LINE) for the bulls to be back in control.
Support is good circa. 1.1660 and on the chart below (PURPLE LINE) and more recently at 1.1750 (BURGUNDY LINE).
GBP/USD:
The recent weakening USD has pulled cable higher. I am however always thinking that this pair is one news item away from a 100-pip fall and it could happen at any time.
The chart below shows a bullish set of candles, which completely goes against my FUNDAMENTAL views regarding this pair. Price was rejected very strongly at 1.3260 last Friday. That rejection stopped me out of GBP/NZD and GBP/AUD longs at the time… bugger.
I think that we range trade with this pair between the two Fibonacci levels of 23.6% at 1.3170 and 38% at 1.3260.
AUD/USD:
This pair is under pressure as you can clearly see from the chart below. We were held up at 61.8% Fibonacci level last Friday. The spike from this low will allow traders such as me through the PREMIUM SERVICE to re-load short trades this week. The bigger the spike the better… bring it on.
We are getting close to 30 level on the RSi therefore, a couple of re-set trading sessions would suit me fine!!
There are several potential trading patterns one can use on the pair, for now I am running with a channel set up as this pair seems to like channels.
As long as the RBA remains neutral I cannot see this pair moving higher in the near term.
NZD/USD:
We are getting closer to a 30 reading on the RSi. We can of course drop below but I am hoping for a spike to allow me to re-load PREMIUM SERVICE short trades.
The political uncertainty in New Zealand is driving this pair lower and for the foreseeable future I see no change in this connection.
PREMIUM SERVICE subscribers know what my target is to the downside with this pair, the candlestick pattern does look very bearish to me.
Bulls if there are any, will not be back in control of this pair unless we break back above 0.7000, which, seems an awfully long way away at the moment when one looks at current pricing.
USD/CAD:
Bugger…
I really want this pair above 1.2900 to short. After last Friday’s in line inflation print, the pair spiked to the 61.8% Fibonacci level and then pulled back.
The upward sloping channel is basically still intact on the chart below, so I still have some hope for now. Who am I kidding? This pair is bound to about turn and break through the trend line support and leave me behind!!
We have Retail Sales data this week. Does this mean that I may have to wait another week for my short entry?
Below 1.2725 would make me have to re-think my PLAN.
USD/CHF:
Am I dreaming with the pennant / flag patterns on the cart below? It is rather an awkward shape. The measured moves play to 1.0460 (BURGUNDY) and 1.0175 (BLACK).
I am struggling to know what to do with this pair. The PREMIUM SERVICE has a small long trade, which is out of the money at the moment. I am not sure what to do with this pair, but I do know that longer-term I want to be long.
I am working on the fact we are in a range of 0.9840 to a.0040.
USD/JPY:
Because I am stupid I let 60 pips of profit disappear with this pair last Friday… argh!!
RISK sentiment is ruling this pair at the moment as the NIKKEI sells off and uncertainty persists in Washington. Add into the mix treasury yields. Now ask me why did I give up my short so cheaply? Because I am stupid!!
This pair has 108.00 written all over it in my opinion. The 200 DAY SMA comes in around 111.80, which was original take profit level, but a break below here would NOT surprise me and a test of 110.00, the 61.8% Fibonacci level would seem reasonable to me for the shorter term.
THOUGHTS ON THIS WEEK’S ECONOMIC DATA:
Most of the economic data releases this week are related to speeches by Central Bank leaders. Therefore, it is reactionary news, which of late I have not enjoyed much as it has been lacking conviction or momentum. The recent exceptions being the BOE Super Thursday and Draghi’s ECB Press Conference. There was certainly direction following these, but the rest… not my cup of tea.
Of what remains, the following short list interests me: –
AUD: MONETARY POLICY MEETING MINUTES.
These minutes surely to God cannot be as much of a snooze fest as the original statement release. It passed basically without a flicker. Philip Lowe also speaks about 12 hours after the minutes are published.
The RBA are neutral. It will be interesting to see if any timescales on policy were discussed plus any inklings vis-a-vis housing prices in the Australian market.
USD: FOMC MEETING MINUTES.
It’s not about this year, 2017 that has me including this item in this section, it is about future discussions into 2018. At the end of the day with a new FED chair moving in early next year, I am not expecting future policies to be changed or placed on hold. Central Banks are well oiled dinosaurs that move so slowly and like massive oil tankers when a change of policy is made in the sense that it takes oil tankers 5/6 miles to turnabout.
Rate hikes into 2018 is what will catch the eye in this release.
CAD: CORE RETAIL SALES.
I am looking to short the USD/CAD and add to my CORE SHORT POSITION. Therefore, I want the poor data to continue to give me the best entry level possible. The closer to 1.3000 the better…. I am waiting.
Being realistic however, last month’s reading was a dismal negative 0.7%. I would be astonished if a negative print was repeated in the run up months to Christmas.
HOW TO PLAY THE MARKET THIS WEEK:
Personally, I believe that we are in a consolidation period once again. Last week the USD was whacked and the commodity currencies were taken to the woodshed.
The majors and the cross rates in my opinion need to re-set. There were some massive moves over the past week. EUR/USD +800 pips, GBP/NZD about +600 pips or so and GBP/AUD about +500 pips.
The Monthly ATR (Average True Range) GBP/AUD is just under 1,000 pips so when you consider that 500 pips was the range last week, we need to consolidate the moves. Not that we have to consolidate with the cross-rate pairs, they are very volatile but you have to be aware of these facts into this week.
We are light on true economic data this week and therefore we will be at the will of the news wires… oh shit I can hear you saying.
Yes regretfully, it will be the Senate and the numbers of GOP senate members that will either vote yes or no on the TRUMP TAX REFUND. From what I can see it’s no longer tax reform, that is far too radical for dysfunctional politicians to stomach.
BREXIT will feature as progress really needs to be established prior to the end of the year. We are soon into the season of lavish Christmas Parties in Brussels. The expense accounts will be out in full and the hospitality industry will move up from yellow to red alert as the cha ching of cash and need for extra credit card swipe machines intensifies.
If David Davis (UK Chief negotiator) doesn’t get some UK BREXIT positives on paper pre-Christmas, I can see a Tory party revolt and a new leader in place for early 2018. I write this and I am fully aware that no one with any grey matter in their heads would want the poison chalice of dealing with BREXIT, unless you do not mind shoving two fingers in the air to the EU and taking the no deal option…. enter Boris Johnson.
I think therefore that trading USD majors especially the EUR/USD and USD/JPY will be very reactionary to US data and BREXIT will keep anything GBP tied up.
Therefore, the commodity currencies should offer us option. The AUD and NZD currencies in particular are weak and trading very heavily. Whilst I believe we have to allow for resetting pullbacks to enter these currencies remain the best option for trading pairs with liquidity.
The NZD is especially under pressure politically and moves lower should continue as long as political uncertainties continue. The AUD is being pushed lower by the RBA. Hats off to Philip Lowe this is being done professionally and the move is to a large extent given what usually happens being conducted under the radar.
I have already said we should wait for the commodity cross rates to reset so that leaves the smaller currencies and exotic pairs.
I closed a number of trades last Friday pre-weekend on the failure of the AUD and NZD currencies. I still think that pairs like the AUD/JPY, NZD/JPY, AUD/NZD, NZD/CAD etc. are still viable until the market reset is completed.
- THE PREMIUM SERVICE:
The PREMIUM SERVICE is my own subscriber based Forex support service that offers subscribers my suggested trade set-ups and market commentaries.
Full details of the PREMIUM SERVICE and costs to subscribe plus the various trade styles and how suggested trade set-ups are communicated can be found on my website landing page at www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com by selecting the HISTORY & PERFORMANCE tab.
CURRENT 2017 PREMIUM SERVICE PERFORMANCE:
PIPS ADDED LAST WEEK: = +1,276 pips
PIPS MONTH TO DATE: = +1,445 pips
YEAR TO DATE: = +11,847 pips
Further information can be found by clicking TESTIMONIALS, PART-TIME TRADERS and FX PROMOTIONS tabs on my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Alternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.
http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX
To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.
- PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIBERS ONLY:
(Only SUBSCRIBERS to the PREMIUM SERVICE can view this section of the BLOG)
4:1. TRADING REVIEW:
4:2. SENTIMENT CHART, FUNDAMENTAL & MACRO THOUGHTS:
4:3. TRADING PLANS:
4:3.1. TRADING PLAN OVERVIEW THIS WEEK:
4:3.2. EXISTING CORE TRADES (PLANS & STRATEGIES):
4:4. CURRENT LIVE TRADES & LIMIT ORDERS:
4:5. FX BROKER NEWS with their MARKET FEEDBACK:
- INTO THE CLOSE:
WANT A FREE PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTION:
If you like what you have read in this blog and would like the chance to win a FREE SUBSCRIPTION valued at CAD$150.00, all you need to do is subscribe to my FREE NEWSLETTER (this blog), by adding your email address on my welcome page just below my cube logo at www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com
PREMIUM SERVICE SUBSCRIPTIONS:
If you like what you’ve read in this blog and should you want to go a stage further and subscribe to the PREMIUM SERVICE, this can be done on my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com under the Tab SUBSCRIBE HERE.
Subscribing to the PREMIUM SERVICE is not just about receiving a larger “DRIVE THRU” blog packed with more trading supporting information, my thoughts and ideas. There is much more to a subscription than those things. Check it all out under the tab HISTORY & PERFORMANCE on my website www.weeklyfxdrivethru.com
Alternatively, if you prefer to watch a video recording about the PREMIUM SERVICE, click the link below. You will be directed to a 40-minute webinar presentation entitled “AN INTRODUCTION TO THE PREMIUM SERVICE”.
http://screencasts.weeklyfxdrivethru.com/watch/cb6fqiIAZX
To subscribe to THE PREMIUM SERVICE, you will require a valid credit card.
CLOSING THOUGHTS:
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
As usual…
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Scott Pickering
The Pip Accumulator
Twitter: @pipaccumulator
https://weeklyfxdrivethru.com/disclaimer/
BLOG VERSION: #FREE NEWSLETTER
19th November 2017