Today’s key event is the ECB meeting and it is widely anticipated that further easing will be announced. Whether this new measure exceeds or falls below expectation will dictate how the markets, and in particular the EUR/USD, react. Some of this easing-biased news must surely be priced in to current EUR/USD price action and any less-dovish than expected ECB rhetoric has the potential to end this pair higher.
USDX weekly: this remains hovering near the key 100 level ahead of tonights ECB meeting. Further ECB easing with any extra-dovish tone could help underpin the index at this 100 level:
USDX 4hr: the 4 hr trend line is broken but the 100 is proving to have magnetic qualities for now. Any disappointment with ECB, that might support the EUR, could prove damaging here though:
EURX weekly: this is being rather ambitious and printing a bullish candle above 94 support for now. That could all change with the RECB tonight though but the 94 level remains the line in the sand level to watch here:
S&P500 weekly: struggling under major resistance and nervous ahead of this week’s ECB and NFP and, later, FOMC:
Gold weekly: this is testing the bottom trend line of the wedge pattern. A break and hold below would, obviously, be bearish and undermine this pattern:
TC Signals: there were two from late last week on the USD/CAD and the GBP/USD. I’d warned about key S/R levels in the path of both of these signals and they proved to be effective barriers as both signals closed off fairly flat. However, last night’s GBP Construction PMI miss has meant that another signal triggered on the Cable and, also, that the 1.50 support level was broken:
GBP/USD 4hr: another TC signal triggered:
GBP/USD daily: The break below 1.50 is certainly bearish and adds support to the daily chart’s triangle pattern that is worth up to 1,600+ pips. The next obvious support though looks to be near the previous low at 1.45 region, some 350 pips away:
GBP/JPY: this recent GBP weakness also triggered a new TC short signal on the GBP/JPY BUT I would prefer to see a close and hold below 184 support before being confident here. Any break and hold below 184 could support the start of significant triangle breakdown though worth up to 1,600 pips here as well:
New TC signals also triggered earlier this week whilst I was away and these were on the A/J, Kiwi, GBP/AUD and EUR/AUD. There is a common theme here with commodity$Â strength creeping through:
AUD/JPY 4hr: this has given 120 pips but looks to be closing off. I’m on the lookout for a test of 89 though:
Kiwi 4hr: this signal only gave 50 pips before stalling under the key 0.67 level and then closing off:
EUR/AUD 4hr: 170 pips:
GBP/AUD 4hr: has given 360 pips and is below the 2.07 S/R level:
G/A monthly:  Regular readers will be aware that I have been stalking two possible patterns on the monthly GBP/AUD chart. That of either a bullish ‘Inverse H&S’ or a bullish ‘Cup ‘n’ Handle’ with the 2.07 level being crucial on both. Any further falls here might help form up the ‘Handle’ for the ‘Cup ‘n’ Handle’ scenario:
GBP/NZD 4hr: this has given 370 pips and is back down near the 2.24 S/R level:
G/N weekly: Any break and hold below 2.24 might support a deeper move down to other previous S/R level of 2.10:
Other FX:
EUR/USD: will tonight’s ECB kick start the Bear Flag with a move below 1.045/1.040? The Bear Flag has already given 450 pips but there is a lot more, potentially, on offer here IF this move develops:
EUR/JPY 4hr: not doing too much ahead of ECB:
AUD/USD daily: this has paused at the daily TL and is still near major S/R:
U/J: the 124 level remains the one to watch here:
USD/CAD: this is still stuck under the monthly chart’s 61.8% fib level:
AUD/NZD monthly: I still check in on this chart every now and then and I’m still seeing a bullish ‘inverse H&S’:
EUR/GBP weekly: I’m still seeing a bullish ‘inverse H&S’ here too:
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