Market Talk

From the FXWW Chatroom: New Zealand’ Sept trade deficit widened to Nzd1.436bn from previous/revised –Nzd1.243bn. Minor impact on Kiwi dollar, dropping just 10 pips against Usd. I heard offers are crowding near 0.7190 where the 100-Day SMA is at 0.7192. Some weak stops reported near 0.7125. I don’t expect much in coming 24-hours due to options maturing, today 0.7165 for Nzd300mio and tomorrow 0.7150 for Nzd350mio and 0.7140 for nzd410mio. All New York cuts.

There are several AudUsd option strikes maturing today New York. Topside 0.7660 for Aud650mio, 0.7620 with notional Aud950mio. Big ones are on 0.75-handle. Aud1.2bn at 0.7575 and a juicy Aud1.55bn at 0.7540. AudNzd sold, thus weakening the Aussie dollar to 0.7633. Into late morning, AudJpy was sold by leveraged names, sent AudUsd to 0.7622. Prop accounts left offers near 0.7700 and there are bids at 0.7550.

UsdJpy and CadJpy supply for the Tokyo fix saw UsdJpy down at 104.54 after briefly at 104.695 after official open. On CadJpy, UsdCad rose to 1.3389. An interesting observation was that a guy whom usually sells UsdJpy was buyer at the fix today. Last time he did this, UsdJpy was on the 102-handle…hint hint!

Known fact that offers scattered up to 105.00 coming from usual suspects for month-end. There are stop loss orders above 105.05-10 area coming from breakout artists and CTA. Comments by BOJ Governor Kuroda that central bank may not need to buy Jpy80trln to keep zero target goal in future caused UsdJpy to move towards the 104.30’s. Talk of selling coming from macro names adding to shorts. Downside bids at 104.00 linked to an options.

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