Market Talk: FXWW

From the FXWW Chatroom: HSBC AMFX: The selloff in European equities is getting big enough to matter, I think. It could lead to some mild contagion to US equities and EM next week. I think the next few days will be a rough patch for risky assets.
One simple way to play this is short EURCHF. Check out this chart of DAX/bunds ratio vs. EURCHF. I also like USDTRY higher as it has formed a really nice base down here and the newsflow there remains bad.
I have cut my AUD and NZD bullish views. I was totally wrong on the RBA and if risky assets sell off, AUD and NZD are insanely rich short-term.
BAML: The latest CFTC FX Positioning Report highlights that while investors were net sellers of USD last week ($2.8bn), USDJPY was bought at the 6th fastest pace in the last year ($1.9bn) – long positioning is now at 3 year maximums. Last week also saw the 2nd strongest weekly AUDUSD buying the in past year ($1.3bn). EURUSD was again purchased ($1.2bn, bought 12/13 weeks) and aligns well with BofAML LCBF real money flows. BofAML Quant trader suggests the EUR trend has further to run despite CFTC players being at their 3yr max longs. USDCAD ($1.3B) selling continued for a 8th consecutive week and the long USDCAD risk has now flipped short.
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