NFP and Holiday week. (Apr 30)

The new week starts with a bank holiday for China and Great Britain. Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday is a bank holiday in Japan. Thursday is a bank holiday for most European banks celebrating Ascension Day and finally on Friday is NFP. As far as I am concerned, tomorrow (Sunday 1st of May) is the Greek Orthodox Easter and Greek banks will be closed on Monday and Tuesday, so I might be a little bit “lazy” at the beginning of the week.JPY was the protagonist of the week with the BOJ announcing an extension of the QQE. The rumors made the JPY weaker last week (ie all JPY pairs moved higher) but the actual announcement was considered as beneficial and all JPY pairs dropped by hundreds of pips. A worst than expected AUD CPI report on Wednesday, weakened the pair which refused to continue moving the remaining two days of the week. On Tuesday the AUD cash rate will be announce and the inevitable report from the RBA. If dovish the pair (Aud/Usd) is expected to move lower and test 0,75 where I expect some reaction.

From the pairs that I monitor, Eur/Usd is testing resistance and I expect it to bounce and move lower, the Gbp/Usd broke above resistance by 100 pips but remains inside the No man’s land (2 emas) and I also expect it to bounce and move lower, the Aud/Usd remains inside a range but a negative RBA report could push it 100 pips lower and test 0,75 level before bouncing, Eur/Jpy broke support but could re-enter the previous trading zone, Gbp/Jpy has some room before testing support and I believe it will test it this week. Eur/Aud is testing the emas and could bounce or test resistance at 1,52 before moving lower again. With Gbp/Aud I am a little bit concerned since “it should not be where it is”. Idem with Usd/Jpy. It broke support and could be just a stop loss hunting or things are more serious with the pair and could continue dropping. Finally Usd/Cad keeps moving lower and lower. Starting January we only had 1 “green week” and 14 “red ones”. I do not know if it can continue dropping forever but I do not see any reaction. Oil keeps moving higher and closed 2 cents away from 46$ a barrel.


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