Oops!… I did it again (Apr 23rd)

During the week I am thinking about the title I am going to use for my Weekly analysis. It has to be something educational, catchy, funny and it is not always easy. When I was writing my analysis last week and was mentioning Mr Draghi and Thursday’s ECB press conference I was telling myself that he is going to do it again and was thinking about modifying Britney Spears’ song to Oops he did it again. Finally Super Mario did not announce anything important (except that the ECB will directly give money to companies by buying their bonds). On the other hand I got trapped with my Gbp/Jpy short. After the opening gap I was in profit for 180 pips but my take profit was a little bit lower and I decided to wait before closing my trade. 5 days later I am 700 pips under water, so it was me that did it again, but I am thinking that it will soon start moving lower because except from the visit of Mr and Mrs Obama to the UK and the pictures with the adorable prince George nothing really important took place on behalf of the GBP. I would dare to say that if Mr Obama has to support the GBP then things are really bad and consensus is for the BREXIT.

This is FOMC and BOJ week. On Wednesday the FOMC meeting with the Federal Funds Rate and on Thursday the BOJ Outlook report. Rumors from Tokyo confirm an additional QQE. Just like Mr Draghi, Mr Kuroda will give money to the banks on the condition they lend it to the real economy. Thursday is also the day the Reserve Bank of New Zealand will announce the official Cash Rate. In March they surprised the market by reducing it to 2,25% from 2,50%.

From the pairs I observe the Eur/Usd will most likely move south, idem for the Gbp/Usd. The Aud/Usd could start the week by moving south before bouncing, Eur/Jpy and Gbp/Jpy and Usd/Jpy will probably have to wait for the BOJ before moving. Eur/Aud is testing support and will eventually break it, but technically it remains inside a range and we could see it moving higher. Gbp/Aud is ready to move lower again and finally the Usd/Cad is in a confusing situation. After the Doha unsuccessful meeting Oil price should “logically” go south. It did start with a gap, from the close 40,31 it opened at 38,73, moved to 37,63 and finally closed at 43,72, 6,12 $ higher from the low or 16%. If Oil price continues to rise, the Usd/Cad will move lower but I am not very convinced.


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