Pre NFP thoughts by CitiFX’s Steve Englander – FXWW Chatroom

We go in thinking USD more vulnerable to the downside because 
1) market still long USD 
2) weak outcome will confirm emerging fears that Q1 slowdown was not an aberration 
3) one strong number unlikely to convince investors that June is live 
4) Citi’s weak forecast looks more in line with mixed labor data precursors than the consensus optimism. 

If a weak outcome generates fears of a more pronounced slowdown, USDJPY downside is likely to be the trade; CADJPY downside if it adds to downward pressure on energy prices. 

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