Sept 12th – Follow through Tues – Stay Short Aussie: By Greg Matwejev

Yesterday we had gravestone doji Monday on the Aussie and we got the text book move lower. Fridays move has all the hallmarks of a blow off top. Price besides printing the gravestone doji  price also spiked through the bolli bands a sign of overshooting. The sell signal comes when it re-enters the bands… which it did yesterday. Today price has opened breaking short term uptrend support on the daily chart below. So signs are there with that tech break for follow through selling Tuesday ! Next meaningful support comes in with the long term uptrend from the May lows which cuts in at 0.7950. Will need to re-assess the climate then whether a potential break is possible. US 10yr yields are back at 2.13% supporting the USD. The Aussie was only flying high on the back of broad based USD weakness. A further run topside in US yields will continue to support the USD and weigh on the Aussie. US CPI comes Thursday. Its the main event risk this week and extremely important. Any marginal beat will be super positive for yields and the USD. Keep in mind the market is short a bucket load of USD and an unwind on top tier US data such as CPI could be brutal. For short Aussie positions stops can be placed above yesterdays high at 0.8060+. This level also coincides with the top of the bolli bands so will take something special to get it back above here.

By | September 12, 2017

Source: FXCharts

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