Chinese Trade Balance data rattled risk sentiment yesterday as did the pull back with Oil. The headline impact of these results was one thing but then charts of both are another. Trading remains a bit choppy given the lineup of Central Banks reporting over the next two weeks but this is bringing some longer term FX charts into greater focus.
Oil daily: price has pulled back but note where it stalled. At the 50% fib of the recent sing low move which happens to be just under the psychological $40 level and, as a consequence, a bit of consolidation here should come as no surprise. Recall too that Oil recently broke up through a long-term trend line that was in effect for 21 months and could well be tested before any potential bullish continuation. Don’t forget the $33.55 level is major S/R as well and this is down near the trend line for added confluence.
Chinese Trade Balance data: much was made of the miss with this data but, if you look at the 10 year chart, this dip seems to be ‘in trend’:
China Exports: lower here but the pattern is on trend here too it seems:
USDX weekly: still range-bound here between 100 and 92.50. Ho hum
S&P500 30 min: a choppy session:
S&P500 daily Cloud: still above the daily Cloud but note the resistance from the 2,000 level:
TC Signals: the remaining two signals have closed off:
Gold 4hr: watch for any hold above or move back below $1,250. A break below $1,250 might target $1,200:
USD/CAD 4hr: don’t forget there is the BoC rate statement here later today so watch for any make or break of the 1.355 level:
Forex: there is the BpC rate statement, US Crude Inventories and GBP Manufacturing Production data tonight. Thursday brings the RBNZ and ECB rate statements though:
E/U 4hr: consolidating ahead of ECB:
E/J 4hr: ditto here:
GBP/NZD: I haven’t posted charts of this pair for a while as it has been rather messy. Price action is back near a major S/R level though ahead of tomorrows RBNZ and so it may be worth watching this level and the 4hr chart’s trend lines:
G/N weekly: back near the key 2.10 level:
G/N 4hr: a triangle is in play here so watch for any trend line break that evolves with momentum:
NZD/USD: the NZD/USD is currently putting pressure on a monthly chart bear trend line but this price action is also shaping up into a bit of a Bear Flag. This is well worth watching with tomorrow’s RBNZ to see which way this pair might head next.
NZD/USD monthly: a bullish break of trend line in progress or a Bear Flag forming? Any bearish breakdown might trigger a Bear Flag where technical theory would suggest the previous S/R region of 0.40 might be a target. Hard to imagine but, hey.
AUD/NZD monthly: This chart is worth keeping in mind too as price shapes up in a bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’ under a bear trend line. This chart makes me suspect that the bearish NZD/USD move, just maybe, could evolve:
EUR/AUD: this is also shaping up with interest ahead of tomorrow’s ECB:
E/A weekly: consolidating around the key 1.55 level:
E/A 4hr: watch for any trend line break that evolves with momentum. Just FYI: it is a 400 pip move down to the bottom triangle trend line:
A/U daily: holding above 0.74 but if commodities back off then this could too:
A/J 4hr: consolidating within a larger triangle here but still above the key 80 level:
GBP/USD 4hr: a bit weaker and putting pressure on a recent support trend line. Watch with tonight’s GBP Manufacturing Production data:
U/J 4hr: not much happening here:
GBP/NZD 4hr: nor here: