From the FXWW Chatroom: STEER™ signals EURUSD overvalued
We took profit on our long EURUSD recommendation yesterday at our 1.16 target locking in a profit of 2.7% but we remain positioned for further EURJPY and EURAUD upside via derivatives recommendations. We believe USD positioning is getting increasingly short (-19 on our scale of -50 to +50) and more importantly, US front-end yields have finally adjusted to levels where risks are more skewed to the upside. US 2-year yields have fallen from 110 bps at the start of 2016 to 75 bps now. These levels are now consistent with our Rates Strategists’ year end targets. Our STEER™ model now suggests EURUSD is rich to key drivers with the model signals fair value at 1.1366 (see chart). STEER has proven to be a reliable indicator of short-term EURUSD movements this year. Today, we expect a weaker reading on the ADP payroll report and the employment component of the services ISM could also point to a slowing in payroll growth ahead of Friday’s release. We forecast a slowdown to just 175K for payrolls growth on Friday.
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