Credit Suisse: Today’s trades/positions:
EURUSD: Short at 1.2950, stop above 1.2990, for 1.2790.
USDJPY: Buy at 106.80, stop below 106.35, for 109.25.
GBPUSD: Short at 1.6230/80, stop above 1.6345, for 1.6005.
USDCHF: Flat, buy at .9305/00, stop below .9275, for .9400.
AUDUSD: Took profit at .8985. Sell at .9080, stop above .9145 for
.8895.
NZDUSD: Took profit at .8125. Sell at .8240,stop above .8290 for .8100.
USDCAD: Long again, stop below 1.0910, for 1.1275.
EURJPY: Long, stop below 137.60, for 139.75.
EURGBP: Short at .8035, stop/reverse above .8045, for .7800.
NZD orders:
Topside — 0.8285-90 Sell orders, 0.8255 Buy stops, 0.8220 Buy stops
Downside —- 0.8155-60 Buy orders, 0.8100-10 Buy orders
Downside —- 0.8155-60 Buy orders, 0.8100-10 Buy orders
BoA:
From an investor sentiment perspective, EPFR has tracked an outflow of $672mn this week from UK equity funds, which is the second largest since its records began in 2001. Our LCBF flows show hedge fund selling last week the largest since we began keeping records in 2009 but Real money remains long.
Interesting demand from the franchise has been biased towards playing for a recovery bounce in GBP. Trading view is that long vol in the 6mo part of the curve is still an attractive trade.
In his latest Liquid Technical Edge, BofAML’s MacNeil Curry notes that whilst the USD is in the midst of a short term correction lower, it should be seen as an opportunity to add to longs, especially in EUR$ where we hold high conviction that moves should be capped ahead of 1.3057 for a resumption of a move to 1.2787/1.2694 and below. In contrast to our high conviction on a lower €/$, we remain unconvinced of the d/side potential for AUD$ noting that AUD$ weakness is primarily going to be driven by USD strength and actually prefers to focus on playing long AUD/NZD where we look for a base into 1.0990/1.0895 for a broad move towards 1.1600 as part of the early stages of a multi-year uptrend.
BofAML’s FX Quant Trader recommends buying $CHF, $SEK and $JPY. CHF joins GBP as a dominant funding currency on our FORTE model, with both equities and rates are underperforming in G10. Proprietary positioning models, timezone analysis and the risk reversal all point to further $CHF upside. Our positioning data suggests $SEK longs (and GBP$ shorts) are not stretched. The price-action has been more impulsive to the upside, describing a low chance of reversal in trend. Our models remain bullish $JPY as option data shows evidence of rising demand for USD calls / JPY puts (% $calls making a record YTD).
From an investor sentiment perspective, EPFR has tracked an outflow of $672mn this week from UK equity funds, which is the second largest since its records began in 2001. Our LCBF flows show hedge fund selling last week the largest since we began keeping records in 2009 but Real money remains long.
Interesting demand from the franchise has been biased towards playing for a recovery bounce in GBP. Trading view is that long vol in the 6mo part of the curve is still an attractive trade.
In his latest Liquid Technical Edge, BofAML’s MacNeil Curry notes that whilst the USD is in the midst of a short term correction lower, it should be seen as an opportunity to add to longs, especially in EUR$ where we hold high conviction that moves should be capped ahead of 1.3057 for a resumption of a move to 1.2787/1.2694 and below. In contrast to our high conviction on a lower €/$, we remain unconvinced of the d/side potential for AUD$ noting that AUD$ weakness is primarily going to be driven by USD strength and actually prefers to focus on playing long AUD/NZD where we look for a base into 1.0990/1.0895 for a broad move towards 1.1600 as part of the early stages of a multi-year uptrend.
BofAML’s FX Quant Trader recommends buying $CHF, $SEK and $JPY. CHF joins GBP as a dominant funding currency on our FORTE model, with both equities and rates are underperforming in G10. Proprietary positioning models, timezone analysis and the risk reversal all point to further $CHF upside. Our positioning data suggests $SEK longs (and GBP$ shorts) are not stretched. The price-action has been more impulsive to the upside, describing a low chance of reversal in trend. Our models remain bullish $JPY as option data shows evidence of rising demand for USD calls / JPY puts (% $calls making a record YTD).
RBSM: Amplifying Global FX | Sticking with USD longs: