THE WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU
Almost through the first trading month of the year and I feel progress so far is “one step forwards… two steps back”. As things stand right now, I think that the month will be marginally up or marginally down measured by both pips and cash. In no way is it anything like a blowout month… I know that there is still a week left, let’s see if have a hallelujah moment or two.
So, last week.
We had a Theresa May moment, a Draghi Press Conference and the fashion show in Washington aka THE DONALD comes to town for his signing in ceremony.
Draghi was a bore; and, frankly he had to present that way. Still lots to do, still dovish, need governmental support, the ECB cannot do it alone, headwinds getting stronger, fragile recovery, signs are good but much more to be done. We did NOT discuss tapering…. yeah right!! It was enough for the markets, and the single currency weakened a little across the board a perfect delivery by Draghi and the ECB.
Theresa May, came out all guns blazing. We are leaving the EUROPEAN UNION but we are not leaving EUROPE. Not quite so sure the Brussels bureaucrats would view it quite the same. I have no doubt they were sat back with a good bottle red digesting all of May’s comments and poking fun.
Theresa May placed a very positive spin on the BREXIT. “Play ball and all will be good for both sides”, however, she cherry picked all the goodies that she knows the EU will never agree to this because it would cause a CONTAGION. Despite all the previous commentary she tried once again to pre-negotiate.
Let’s get this 100% clear and unambiguous; until article 50 is triggered, the UK is in the EU. You cannot negotiate an exit until you are in the exit process. This is basic stuff.
I tweeted a bit about this last week. Hard BREXIT soft BREXIT? Come on its an exit and it will be difficult as both sides have lines in the sand that they simply cannot cross. The cable rallied on a cherry-picking speech. It was a great speech, very well written and very well delivered but the quality of the content in my opinion was a little “Mickey Mouse” and more of a dream than a belief that it could be possible. The markets as usual bought it, but the short squeeze rally was in my opinion overdone… “bigly”!
Finally, the DONALD’S inauguration; I am covering THE DONALD in section 5 “SCOTT’S SOAPBOX”, so I write it all there.
Moving on… “LIVE Broadcasts”
I did not broadcast PERISCOPE #2 last Monday. The vehicle (PERISCOPE) is just not what I needed to meet the objectives that I have moving forward.
This coming Monday 23rd January at 5:30PM EST, I am launching the “WEEKLY FX DRIVE THRU – LIVE” via a “live in the market” webinar with my partners “demio”.
This arrangement allows me to share screens, office documents and LIVE charting screens. Hopefully after a few fumbles as I gain competencies it will be a seamless affair for all parties. All I ask is for you to be patient with me.
Whilst this format gives me 100% what I want, there are a couple of issues, at the moment, that you as potential viewers need to be made aware of: –
- You need Google Chrome as a browser to attend.
- You cannot view on smart phones or tablets, only Laptops and Desktops.
The link is below: –
Not that I want to keep placing links in front of readers, but as this blog ends up in the strangest of places when it is redistributed on the web, I do have another one to add. I know via feedback that non-Forex Traders read it, not sure why, my humour is poor, my grammar weak, my swearing predictable and overall it does not get great Google feedback as they say it’s hard to read.
Feck me I’m from Liverpool, we do not know big words. When I was a teenager growing up, and my Dad was a Policeman (Cop) we lived in a great area. However, in general conversation, anything over two syllables and you were deemed a snob in danger of getting your head kicked in by a local gang! What I am saying here is I am no Fraser Crane I use small words.
THE FX MARKET PLACE – LOOKING FORWARD:
NOTE: This year, 2017, I am not going to look backwards in this section only forwards. News items / points of interest from the prior week will be covered in the introduction.
MY THOUGHTS ON THE WEEK AHEAD:
I completely got the BOC wrong last week. The rate statement OK, but I did not foresee Stephen Poloz announcing that rate cuts were back as options moving forwards. Let’s hope I am better this week.
On the docket this week in no particular order: –
CPi data from Australia and New Zealand and GDP data from the UK and US. Also, Draghi speaks on Sunday night just after the open and that awfully nice chap from the RBNZ Graeme Wheeler chats to probably a bewildered audience on Wednesday…if the audience is not bewildered at the beginning there is a better than 50-50 chance by the end!
The big one should be the Supreme court ruling over the UK BREXIT. IF the House of Commons must vote on the BREXIT to ratify the referendum vote by the people, this will have enormous constitutional issues. Never mind the democratic issues that this will throw up. It could be a tasty piece of news. It’s one thing allowing Parliament to debate the BREXIT but the people in a democracy have decided and surely this (excuse the pun) “TRUMPS” parliament.
I am no constitutional expert, not by any stretch, but if the people elect parliamentarians by voting for whom they choose, the people have the vote that should decide in a referendum. Let’s see.
I see this week as a week where we could be and probably will be pushed up and down on the back of the number of executive orders placed by THE DONALD in his first few days of his presidency, plus, how many tweets the US Commander-in–chief issues and if he’s started any new wars, currency, trade or military!
Expect the chop fest.
As Monty Python once said “No-one expects the Spanish Inquisition” … in 2017 it will be “No-one expects THE DONALD”.
Get ready for it.
USD MAJORS – “IMMEDIATE” SUPPORT & RESISTANCE with TREND:
My trade charts for the USD majors are below. My thoughts, views and commentary is written on the charts.
You will find my charts, hopefully easy to follow. I only use Fibonacci levels, trend lines, confluence points and sometimes chart patterns to identify my high probability trades. If you have any difficulty understanding the points that I am trying to make, please do not hesitate to contact me.
If you recall, in my final “DRIVE THRU” of 2016, I provided a list of TRADING PREDICTIONS for 2017. I basically named several geopolitical events that I feel will weigh on the markets this year. Therefore, for the first few weeks of 2017, I want to look at these events in a little more detail.
As you will be aware, so much has been said already on the subjects that I have highlighted, I can only add points and views that are my own, based upon how I see things and how I am going to view trading around these events.
TRUMP, PROZAC, OXYCONTIN and THE USD
There always seems to be something similar to a theatrical overtone to anything that is TRUMP associated in my opinion. I cannot put my finger on exactly what, but it’s almost as if one is expecting some TV style stunt to happen in the middle of a speech or something like that.
I am not sure whether it’s an overriding feeling of dis-belief that he actually pulled it off, beat the odds, beat a well-oiled machine, claimed victory with his whole party against him, in fact, he alone, with just the help of his family and his running partner, took on the might of the Presidency and the Billions of dollars behind a Clinton campaign and won.
The Republican party that hid under rocks during the campaign are now only too happy to crawl out from under that rock and feast on the spoils of victory to which their added value was zero, in fact in some cases minus.
This is one main reason why I have a low opinion of politicians. They are only fair weather friends. I realize that there are some good ones, but in most countries, you can count them on one hand. I now have first-hand experience of 5 countries.
Thanks be to God, that neither Piers Morgan or Omarosa parachuted in on the parade on Pennsylvania Avenue, that would have really put my, “it’s about to happen”, reality TV, TV stunt thoughts front and centre.
Definitely moving on now….
The fashion show in DC went off without a snag just 30 minutes late…I must say that the Brits would never stand for the delay, being the masters of pomp and ceremony everything in the UK is rehearsed and timed repeatedly down to almost the tenth of a second for accuracy.
However, one must say that despite what we may think of THE DONALD the fashion police in DC will take on a new role for at least the next four years commenting on Melania, Ivanka and wives of Don Jnr and Eric. In some ways, it could be a pleasant distraction from the twitter account!
The speech in my opinion was just like one from the stump. He had to do that, I cannot for the life of me get over the debate about it. It was 100% expected.
So; all over Washington right now, Republican and Democrats alike are in front their GP (Doctor), requesting drugs to get them through the first 100 days of the TRUMP administration. I never give out any recommendations on stocks or even FX trades, I cannot, but what I can tell you is that we should all watch the shares of PROZAC and OXYCONTIN, I think these could be good buys, whoever manufactures them.
The whirlwind is in town and I would expect that blockages to change will be named and shamed publicly like never before to alert the people who voted them in that they do not have the future of a United States in their heart, or words to that effect.
Politicians the world over, hide behind the party line as a reason to oppose, this is how career politicians survive. If they can blame someone instead of defending their own actions, it suits them better as they need continual good approval rates to be good in order to survive. Popularity is a like an addictive drug to career politicians. Solving problems and fixing things is not in their chemistry, just not in their DNA. It is better to blame someone for something that is not working than actually try to make it work by doing something about it. That would be courageous, thinking outside the box.
If the DONALD is true to his word and I have or see no reason why he won’t stick to his beliefs and run Washington like a business, career politicians must change or get out. Sure, there will be negotiation, but if the DONALD is seen early on to have a couple of wins under his belt, should anyone block change that he sees as another win, God help them.
The changes will be radical, possibly very innovative but definitely a new chapter away from the way the dysfunctional way that DC has operated in the past. It should be interesting. Politicians with lots of severe headaches, finding tranquilly and calm hiding under their desks frightened to speak to the gathering press to answer accusations. Hence the OXYCONTIN and PROZAC references.
From my selfish perspective as a Forex trader where does all that leave me?
The simple answer is… I wish I knew! Right now, I am as uncertain about what happens and how it all unfolds as much as players who are in the know.
Without doubt the USD will be smacked up and smashed down. What do I know for certain at the moment?
- The US is almost at full employment.
- The economy is looking to be on the up.
- The DONALD wants to make huge capital expenditure projects.
- The is good for inflation.
- This will be good for morale and consumer confidence.
- This will feed into retail sales.
- This will feed into housing, new home sales and re-sales.
- This will feed in home improvements.
- This will feed into earnings as demands for the right skills increase.
- Better deposit rates for savers!
The above list and there’s more will be great for the US.
There are some negatives though.
- Inflation on goods and services.
- Gas price increases.
- Higher Interest Rates.
- Increased Mortgage Costs.
Then of course we have the FED. Uber DOVE, Janet Yellen, who I think operates behind the curve is on a path of Monetary Policy Divergence away from all the other major central banks in the G7. With the positives and negatives that I’ve listed above and there are probably pages more of them, she runs the risk of being left behind.
As stated soooooo many times last year, it is so easy to be a DOVE. Keep things as they are, move after the event. Being a HAWK requires conviction, belief and a commanding authority. Does Janet Yellen have this skill set? Can she prepare the Financial Markets in advance for changes in the economy? I am NOT convinced. I think it’s so easy in a low rate environment but in an expansionary environment it requires a whole new skill set, the main one being to stand up to Wall Street.
As a Forex trader, the movement in the USD over the next four years is paramount to everything we do. It is at the heart of every trade we if we are trading the AUD/NZD. The way the USD moves and its correlation to commodities that can have a direct bearing on either the AUD or the NZD currency must be borne in mind. In this example the relationship between COPPER and GOLD and the USD directly affects the AUD.
If you remember, the plans that the DONALD had before coming to power have not altered, the alleged market experts, (I would say 100% of them) said that if the DONALD was elected the USD would dump and the USD/JPY would hit 95.00-98.00. What happened was the USD rallied like crazy to 103.50 from a low of 96.00 and the USD/JPY from 101.00 hit 118.00 both in less than a month after he was elected. Given the experts were about a much use a chocolate teapot, I think we have a difficult answer to the basic question on the USD.
So, keeping things simple here’s my take.
If THE DONALD starts getting his agenda passed and gets the funding on infrastructure, personally I think we are off. This alone creates jobs, spending, raw materials the whole nine yards.
The affordable care act (Obamacare), does not concern me, personally, I thought Obama was onto something but the drug companies have way too much power and influence in US. Health care will NEVER get fixed in the US, there is too much money at stake, it will be “a fudge” in my opinion. This may be a vote winner but it’s not a continual USD market mover like infrastructure.
Infrastructure spending is the key to re-start the merry-go-round.
Where can the USD (DXY) go?
The overriding thought that is stuck in my head when I think about TRUMPECONOMICS, is extremes. Everything associated with THE DONALD is glitter and bright lights. He is Marmite (you either love him or hate him). His policies are in the same mold.
In my opinion the range here is dead simple. With success on infrastructure spending and an 8-year program I see 120.00 again on the DXY. Failure and the dysfunctional DC continues I see the USD toying with 80.00 maybe back to financial crisis lows of around 70.00.
Either move will have spectacular results, vis-à-vis the Forex market. Recession and QE again, possibly negative interest rates on failure to succeed and buoyancy like never seen before on the other side of the equation.
USD/JPY at 150.00 or 75.00.
EUR/USD at 90.00 or 1.4000.
These sound crazy numbers. I am 100% sober writing this blog.
We are living in extreme times. The new President is sworn in on a mandate of shake ‘em up. Everything he touches will be seen as RISK by the traditional hierarchy. He will face battles to move on policy. He will use whatever he can to force his agenda, twitter and the like, it will be messy, there will be blood and for these reasons I see extremes on the spectrum of success.
Sure, when first looking at my currency ranges they are not only massive but extreme but it’s horses for courses, in my opinion these are realistic ranges to consider in the event of success or failure.
In my opinion, to say that THE DONALD has stepped up and placed a noose around his own neck is an understatement. This is why, I firmly believe he will name and shame those who block jobs and US prosperity. He has a big reputation, much of it by self-proclamation, therefore failure is not an option.
Nothing more to add here, I have said enough except,
Always remember longevity in Forex trading can only be achieved through trading with good RISK and MONEY MANAGEMENT, and above all set your position sizes in accordance with the size of your account and allow for some flexibility.
Take care, have a great trading week.
The Pip Accumulator
BLOG VERSION: #46 FOREXTELL
DATE: 22nd January 2017.