US$ behind the wheel

The US$ is behind the wheel of recent movement and the index has now moved below a major S/R level. The FX indices are heading towards a ‘risk on‘ alignment and I’m keeping watch for any such outcome.

USDX: the US$ has had a bad start to the week and this weakness has been driving some FX movement:

USDX daily: the 95.50 has given way. Note how it failed at the 61.8% fib.


USDX weekly: watch for any movement down towards the 92.50 level:


EURX daily: I wrote over the w/e to watch the 100 level here and it’s still holding for now:


Gold 4hr: this just keeps drifting higher and if the US$ keeps tanking then I think this will eventually take on the combined $1,380  + 5yr bear trend line breakout region:


Silver 4hr: some trend lines to watch for any breakout that might trigger but watch for any increased momentum to confirm:


Oil: the $40 handle remains the key level to watch for any potential bounce as this would support the weekly chart’s bullish-reversal ‘inverse H&S’:

Oil daily:


Oil weekly:


TC Signals: 

EUR/USD: I had ignored this signal because it triggered before last week’s BoJ meeting BUT note how it has moved on anyway. It’s now back above the 1.12 major S/R level and has cleared the congested daily 200EMA area !

E/U 4hr:


E/U monthly: we’re up to our 20th monthly candle near this 1.12 level!


GBP/USD: this has triggered a new TC LONG signal and note the movement overnight following the better than expected GBP Construction PMI data:

G/U 4hr:


G/U 30 min:


EUR/AUD 4hr: this signal was ignored ahead of the RBA and it has failed, so, it was one well left!


Other Forex:

E/J 4hr: broke lower but is not very inspiring:


A/U 4hr: so much for the rate cut. The Aussie is sitting at a major junction being just under a major 3 yr bear trend line.


NZD/USD 4hr: choppy under the 0.73 S/R level:


USD/JPY: well, we got the test of the 100/100.50 area. Watching for any bounce from here to support the weekly inverse H&S.

U/J 4hr:


U/J weekly:


USD/CAD: I’m keeping an open mind here with Oil trading at the $40 handle. Any bounce with Oil off this support plus any continued US$ weakness could see this pair head lower and this would bring the 1.30 level back into focus.

The charts show that there still hasn’t been a daily chart or weekly chart wedge breakout. Also note the look of the Bear Flag on the weekly chart!:

USD/CAD 4hr:


USD/CAD daily:


USD/CAD weekly:


USD/CAD monthly:


GBP/AUD 4hr: no breakout here yet:


GBP/NZD 4hr: there has been a channel breakout here but no new TC signal just yet:


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