US$: decisive break of support

The US$ had made a decisive weekly candle break below a 3-year support trend line amid US political uncertainty. This concern looks set to continue with ongoing investigations into the US Presidential campaign and other matters.

USDX weekly: there has been a decisive break below the 3-year support trend line. Watch for any new close below the weekly Cloud and, if so, then watch for any test of the following key S/R regions:

  • the bottom trend line of the symmetrical wedge pattern.
  • the 50% Fibonacci level down near 88.
  • the 61.8% Fibonacci level down near 85. (Note the amended Fibonacci range here. I’ve captured the whole of the last swing high move now; as I see that is!)

Technical theory would suggest that this broken trend line might be tested though before any potential follow-through so be on the lookout for that possibility:

DXYweeklyUSDXweekly

USDX daily: watch for any test of this broken trend line region too:

USDXdaily

EURX weekly: a bullish weekly candle for the EUR$ index. Watch for any upward break from this rising channel and, if so, keep an eye on the 61.8% Fibonacci level near 105.50

EURXweekly

FX Index Alignment: The FX Indices remains aligned for SHORT USD and LONG EUR. This alignment has implications for trading currencies and this has been borne out during last week.

Calendar: There are numerous High and Medium impact items to impact next week although political news may dominate this landscape.  News has just broken that former the FBI Director, James Comey, will testify before the Senate Intelligence Committee after Memorial Day, May 29th and so US$ jitters could well continue until at least then.

calendar

Summary: Watch for any possible US$ test of the broken trend line but the bias remains to the downside whilst this support remains broken.

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