Last week: The EUR/AUD signal from the previous week closed off for a maximum loss of 100 pips. There were three new TC signals last week: A/J = 310, A/U = -30 and EUR/AUD = 80.
NB: this is just a brief update as it has been a busy w/e down here.
Next week:
US$: US$ strength crept in on Friday following the upbeat US Retail Sales data and I’ll be watching to see if this continues into next week. A review of the FX Indices can be found through this link.
Gold: this has stalled under the major 5-year bear trend line AND printed a bearish Engulfing weekly candle.
GBP/NZD: I suggested last week to watch for any bounce up from the 1.77 level. This bounced up from 1.77 on Monday and then went on for over 1,000 pips. I’m on the lookout for possible continuation.
Yen strength: a bit of Yen strength crept in at the end of last week with news reports filtering through about the attempted Coup in Turkey. It remains to be seen whether this sentiment will continue into next week given news that the Coup has apparently failed.
Stocks: The major US stock indices have made bullish Flag breakouts but with some warning divergence though. A review of US stocks can be found through the following link.
Trading Calendar: watch out for the following news items in the coming wee. NB: Times are Sydney time:
FOREX:
EUR/USD: this pair weakened on Friday following US$ strength with the decent US Retail Sales print. There is a new TC signal trying to form off the 4hr chart but I need to see how the ADX shapes up on Monday open.
Price is below the daily and 4hr Cloud:
EUR/JPY: Price dipped late on Friday due to Yen strength with news of the attempted Turkish Coup. It remains to be seen how this will develop into next week though.
Keep an eye on the 115 level as this is major S/R. Note on the monthly chart how price looks to be bouncing up from the major 61.8% fib near this 115 level!
The weekly candle was a large bullish candle.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud:
AUD/USD: US$ strength got the better of this pair at the end of last week and it closed below the key 0.76 level. Price action had been butting up against a 3+ year bear trend line prior to this time though.
Price is above the 4hr and daily Cloud BUT watch for any continued US$ strength to undermine this recent bullish action.
The weekly candle closed as a bullish coloured ‘Spinning Top’.
AUD/JPY: Yen strength on Friday meant this pair dipped back below the key 80 level.
Note on the monthly chart how price looks to be bouncing up from the major 61.8% fib near the 75 level!
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was large and bullish coloured.
GBP/USD: The Cable caught a bid last week with the BoE rate hold but has not made it back above the GFC LOW near 1.35. Price action does look to be trying to carve out a bounce up from the 1.30 level though and the weekly candle was a bullish-reversal ‘Inverted Hammer’.
Price is just above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
Note the look of a bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’ on the daily and 4hr charts. The ‘neck line’ would be the GFC LOW near 1.35:
NZD/USD: The Kiwi lost ground last week apparently due to speculation about a further RBNZ rate cut. Despite this pullback it still managed to close the week above the key 0.70 level.
Note how the 0.73 level is S/R too and how price was rejected at this region last week.
Price is below the 4hr Cloud but above the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle closed as a bearish, essentially ‘Engulfing’, candle.
USD/JPY: this pair fell back below the recent S/R level of 105.5 following Friday’s Yen strength.
Monthly chart: note the bullish-reversal ‘Inverse H&S’ forming up from the 100 area.
Weekly chart: note the bounce up from the 50% fib near 100/100.50.
Price is above the 4hr Cloud but below the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was a large bullish (almost engulfing) candle.
EUR/AUD: this has been very choppy as it struggles to hold above a major support trend line.
Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud.
The weekly candle closed as an indecision-style bearish coloured ‘Spinning Top’ candle.
USD/CAD: this continues to consolidate within a wedge around the 1.30 level.
Price is just below thin 4hr Cloud and just above the daily Cloud.
Not surprising to see the weekly candle close as an indecision-style bearish coloured ‘Spinning Top’.
GBP/AUD monthly: note the bounce up from the 61.8% fib near 1.75.
GBP/JPY monthly: note the bounce up from 134 near the 78.6% fib:
GBP/NZD monthly: I noted last week to watch for any bounce up from the key 1.77 level and we got that to the tune of over 1,000 pips!
I’m on the lookout for any follow through to the 2.10 S/R level:
EUR/CAD monthly: not much happening here just yet:
EUR/NZD monthly: this seems to be trying to hold up from the 1.50 S/R level.
AUD/NZD monthly: I had thought this bullish-reversal pattern was gone for but maybe not!
Gold: Gold has stalled under the major 5 year bear trend line. It did however catch a bid on Friday despite US$ strength as there was some ‘Flight to Safety’ activity following news reports about the attempted Turkish Coup.
Price is below the 4hr Cloud but above the daily Cloud.
The weekly candle closed as a bearish ‘Engulfing’ candle.
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