The US$ remains stuck under 100 but above support from a H&S neck lines. I’m still waiting for the next directional move on this index to help shape up moves across FX pairs although there has been some movement worth noting, especially on the USD/MXN.
USDX daily: between a rock and a hard place here: under 100 but above trend line support:
EURX 4hr: 100 still support for the EURX:
USD/MXN: I Tweeted last week wondering if this was the ‘go to’ trade for any sustained US$ weakness. In my weekend analysis I noted the significance of the break of the major 19 level but warned this could be tested again before any follow through. Here is what I said back then:
Price action has closed the week below the weekly support trend line and the key 19 S/R level which represents a significant breakdown. The weekly chart shows that the 61.8% fib of the major swing high move is down near 16 and so this would be the long-term target for any bearish continuation move. However, I’d expect the 19 level could be tested again before potential bearish follow-through so watch out for any recovery attempt here.
Price is below the 4hr and daily Cloud.
The weekly candle was bearish.
Price has followed through with this technical test of the 19 breakdown level in text-book fashion. The 15 min chart shows that whilst the TC signal evolved in the Cloud, looking for sustained weakness after this test of 19 could have been very very profitable! I’ll be watching for any follow through move to head to test 16.
USD/MXN 15 min:
Gold 4hr: trend lines to watch here for any momentum-based breakout:
EUR/USD: I’m expecting a bit more weakness here as part as any healthy pullback. Note how the even the 30 min chart would have helped bag some pips here:
E/U 30 min:
E/J 4hr: watching and waiting:
AUD/USD 4hr: a breakout starting?
A/J daily: the bounce has held:
GBP/USD: watching for any new breakout here; note the 15 min chart trend lines for guidance:
GBP/USD 15 min:
USD/JPY: watching the 450 pip potential Bear Flag again here:
USD/JPY 15 min:
USD/CAD 4hr: watching trend lines here too:
GBP/AUD 4hr: no surprise here; part of any healthy pull back move for now. A break and hold below the 61.8% could change that though:
GBP/NZD 4hr: watching trend lines here:
EUR/AUD 4hr: a standard pullback here for now. Watch the 61.8% fib:
EUR/NZD: a trend line break here and the 15 min chart would have helped catch this:
EUR/NZD 15 min:
USD/TRY 4hr: consolidating: