USD falls back into channel. Stocks paused & Gold up on Ukraine tension

Thurs 7th Aug (7.30 am)

US stocks have paused above key support yet Gold has rallied as the markets watch nervously over the developments in the Ukraine. The USD fell and is now back within the 10 month old trading channel. I’d mentioned that a weekly close out of this channel would need to be seen before this move can be viewed as being too convincing and that conviction remains:

USDX daily:


EURX: this printed a bullish reversal ‘Hammer’ candle for Wednesday but tonight’s ECB might change this sentiment:


S&P500: is holding above key support for the time being. That support is coming from the daily trend line, now 2 years old, the bottom of the monthly Cloud and the psychological 1,900 level:

S&P500: daily trend line holding for now:


S&P500 daily Cloud: the bottom of the daily Cloud is offering support here:


Silver & Gold: have bounced on the weaker USD and rising geopolitical tension:

Gold:the rally only stopped when it ran back into the daily 200 EMA:


Silver: has bounced off fib support. See the daily chart:

Silver 4hr:


Silver daily: price has pulled back to test the 61.8% fib of the recent bull move:


Forex: remains choppy ahead of GBP and ECB interest rate news and as the USD has stalled at resistance:

TC Signals: there two have both closed off for a loss. I had mentioned I was cautious with these ahead of today’s key data:

E/U 4hr: closed for a loss of 20. There is ECB news here tonight:


E/U weekly Cloud: the bottom of the weekly Cloud has offered support here:


GBP/AUD: closed for a loss of 80. There is GBP and AUD data here today:


Other FX: there is a lot of data to come today: AUD employment data, EUR and GBP interest rates as well as CAD and USD data:

E/J: has fallen back to trend line support. EUR and JPY interest rate data still to come this week:


A/U: enjoying a reprieve courtesy of the weaker USD and stronger Gold. Watch here for reaction to today’s employment data:


A/J: still choppy:


Cable: holding steady above 1.68 support ahead of tonight’s GBP data:


Kiwi: has pulled back but is struggling at the daily 200 EMA. This was previous support but now may prove to be resistance. I have taken a technical short here, not a TC signal trade:


U/J: has pulled well back now with the weaker USD and rising Ukraine tension. Note the pullback and hold above the 61.8% fib of the recent bull move though:


GBP/JPY: down with Ukraine tension and the stronger JPY. Key GBP and JPY interest rate data still to come here this week:


EUR/AUD: the revised trading channel is holding still for now:


AUD/NZD: price has stalled at the key resistance level of 1.105. Watch for reaction here today with AUD data:


Loonie: The wedge breakout move has given 220 pips so far but may have peaked. The weaker USD and the stronger CAD, on the back of positive CAD trade balance data, has slowed this move. Price has stalled at the psychological 1.10 level and the 50% fib of the recent bear move. The Loonie is now only 200 pips away from a major monthly chart bear trend line that has held since 2001! I’d expect price action to be increasingly choppy here now:

Loonie daily:


Loonie Monthly:


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