USD rally continues, more TC pips and stock pullback still going to plan for now by Mary McNamara

The USD index has continued its rally and the stock pullback is still unfolding as per my plan with the NASDAQ yet to test 4,800 and the S&P500 yet to test a key 61.8% fib level.

USDX 4hr: onward and upward here. I do think the psychological 100 level may give it pause for thought though:


USDX monthly: I would expect the 100 level might give this index some grief. It is an S/R level on the monthly chart and near the 61.8% Fib of the previous bear move on the weekly chart. See charts below:


USDX weekly: note how 100 is near the 61.8% Fib retracement of the previous bear run:


EURX 4hr: the 96 ‘Double Bottom’ level didn’t offer too much support here. Terms like ‘Knives’ and ‘Butter’ come to mind!


S&P500 30 min: what a great 30 min trade for US session traders!


S&P500: I had expected the S&P500 to pull back whilst the NASDAQ pulls back to test 4,800. The first obvious pull back target on the S&P500 is the 61.8% Fib of the latest swing high move and we’re not there yet. Any continuation move lower will suggest that a deeper pullback could be on the way. I will then be watching daily and monthly support trend lines as per my w/e analysis.


NASDAQ: this has yet to test the ascending triangle breakout region of 4,800. Any further pullback below 4,800 would suggest a deeper correction and then I would look towards daily and monthly trend line support levels:


S&P500: this tested its breakout region before continuation:


DJIA: this did too!


XJO: The Aussie ASX-200 still has room to pull back too. The 61.8% Fib is down near 5,600 so I’d expect a test of that before continuation. I’m not at all worried here just yet. 


Silver: this is down BUT not as much as you would expect given the USD situation. It’s at a critical juncture here…near the apex of the monthly chart triangle and recent wedge trend line support:


Gold: the ‘line in the sand’ level here is the $1,145 as this is the 61.8% Fib retracement of the major 2007-2011 bull run. Gold is holding above this for now but continued US$ strength may change this:


TC Signals: The E/J and U/J signals closed off.

E/J: this signal closed off after 280 pips but another signal triggered overnight:


 Kiwi: moved on to give up to 220 pips:


U/J: closed off after 200 pips.


Loonie: this ended up moving on for up to 60 pips:


Other FX:

E/U: ‘falling knife’ material here!


A/U: has closed below 0.765 and looking for a move lower:


A/J: a break of trend line but no clean TC signal:


 GBP/USD: this is trying to hold above the 1.50 level:



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